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The Rigor Revolution: New Standards of Evidence for Impact Assessment of International Agricultural Research

Author

Listed:
  • James R. Stevenson

    (CGIAR Standing Panel on Impact Assessment, Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Rome, Italy)

  • Karen Macours

    (Paris School of Economics, Paris, France)

  • Douglas Gollin

    (Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)

Abstract

We take stock of the major changes in methodology for studying the impacts of international agricultural research, focusing on the period 2006–2020. Impact assessment of agricultural research has a long and recognized tradition. Until the mid-2000s, such assessments were dominated by a model of demand for and supply of agricultural products in partial equilibrium. The basic ideas for this approach were sketched out by Griliches more than half a century ago. We describe the implications of heightened standards of evidence for good practice in three domains of research design: causal inference, valid measurement, and statistical representativeness. We document advances in each of these domains and review recent evidence that demonstrates the lessons that can be learned from adopting these practices, emphasizing the importance of evidence at-scale, the need to consider portfolios of innovations at a national level, and the challenges of accounting for innovations that are promoted as bundles.

Suggested Citation

  • James R. Stevenson & Karen Macours & Douglas Gollin, 2023. "The Rigor Revolution: New Standards of Evidence for Impact Assessment of International Agricultural Research," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 495-515, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:15:y:2023:p:495-515
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-resource-101722-082519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wiebe, Keith & Sulser, Timothy B & Dunston, Shahnila & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fuglie, Keith & Willenbockel, Dirk & Nelson, Gerald C., 2020. "Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on Crops to End Hunger," SocArXiv h2g6r, Center for Open Science.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alemu, Solomon & Kosmowski, Frederic & Stevenson, James R. & Mallia, Paola & Taye, Lemi & Macours, Karen, 2024. "Studying inclusive innovation with the right data: An empirical illustration from Ethiopia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Fuglie, Keith O. & Echeverria, Ruben G., 2024. "The economic impact of CGIAR-related crop technologies on agricultural productivity in developing countries, 1961–2020," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural research for development; impact assessment; measurement; causality; scale;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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