IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparison Of Subjective And Historical Crop Yield Probability Distributions


  • Pease, James W.


Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Pease, James W., 1992. "A Comparison Of Subjective And Historical Crop Yield Probability Distributions," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:29647

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2008. "Shape Persistence in Elicited Subjective Crop Yield Probability Density Functions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44128, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Zanini, Fabio C. & Irwin, Scott H. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2000. "Estimating Farm-Level Yield Distributions For Corn And Soybeans In Illinois," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21720, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2006. "Producers' Yield and Yield Risk: Perceptions versus Reality and Crop Insurance Use," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21369, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Metcalfe, Todd & Bosch, Darrell J. & Pease, James W. & Alley, Mark M. & Phillips, Steve B., 2007. "Yield Reserve Program Costs in the Virginia Coastal Plain," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(2), October.
    5. Tor N. Tolhurst & Alan P. Ker, 2015. "On Technological Change in Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 137-158.
    6. Duke, Jason C. & Epplin, Francis M. & Vitale, Jeffrey D. & Peeper, Thomas F., 2009. "Canola-Wheat Rotation versus Continuous Wheat for the Southern Plains," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46620, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Clop-Gallart, M. Merce & Juarez-Rubio, Francisco, 2005. "Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24561, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Nelson, R. A. & Holzworth, D. P. & Hammer, G. L. & Hayman, P. T., 2002. "Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 393-414, December.

    More about this item


    Crop Production/Industries;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:29647. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.