IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ccsesa/230373.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Energy Price Variability on Global Fertilizer Price: Application of Alternative Volatility Models

Author

Listed:
  • Sanyal, Prabuddha
  • Malczynski, Leonard A.
  • Kaplan, Paul

Abstract

This study evaluates the effects of volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices on fertilizer price variations. Specifically, the study looks at the mean and volatility effects of oil and natural gas prices on both mean and volatility changes in fertilizer prices. Both symmetric models [GARCH (1, 1)] and asymmetric models [GJR (1, 1)] were used to model volatility in fertilizer prices and to evaluate the effects of the volatility over different time periods using Bai-Perron structural break tests. The results show that changes in oil and natural gas prices increased fertilizer prices after the crisis period, during June 2007 to June 2008. Both the ARCH and GARCH had significant effects on fertilizer prices, suggesting that the volatility effects of oil and natural gas prices on fertilizer prices were also significant. Furthermore, the maximum impact of higher energy prices depends on triple superphosphate and diammonium phosphate (DAP) leading to higher production costs and consequent increase in total farm expenditures for crop producers. These higher production costs invariably have a negative effect on farm profitability, thus reducing the investment levels in the farm sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanyal, Prabuddha & Malczynski, Leonard A. & Kaplan, Paul, 2015. "Impact of Energy Price Variability on Global Fertilizer Price: Application of Alternative Volatility Models," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 4(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ccsesa:230373
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.230373
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/230373/files/P14-p132-147.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.230373?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Galbraith, Craig, 2010. "An Examination of Factors Influencing Fertilizer Price Adjustment," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61646, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Beckman, Jayson F. & Borchers, Allison & Jones, Carol, 2013. "Agriculture's Supply and Demand for Energy and Energy Products," Economic Information Bulletin 149033, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Uddin, Ajim & Haque, Md. Mahmudul, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of energy price on commodity price: New evidence from NARDL and time frequency wavelet approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Shahzad, Umer & Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2023. "Investigating the spillovers between energy, food, and agricultural commodity markets: New insights from the quantile coherency approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 63-80.
    3. Harun Uçak & Yakup Ari & Esin Yelgen, 2022. "The volatility connectedness among fertilisers and agricultural crop prices: Evidence from selected main agricultural products," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(9), pages 348-360.
    4. Zhengliang Yang & Xiaoxue Du & Liang Lu & Hernan Tejeda, 2022. "Price and Volatility Transmissions among Natural Gas, Fertilizer, and Corn Markets: A Revisit," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Kelly Burns & Imad Moosa, 2017. "Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(48), pages 4897-4910, October.
    3. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    4. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October.
    5. Vincent Dekker & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "A Comparison of Different Data-driven Procedures to Determine the Bunching Window," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(2), pages 262-293, March.
    6. Kar, Sabyasachi & Pritchett, Lant & Raihan, Selim & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "Looking for a break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 151-166.
    7. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    8. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    9. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
    10. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    11. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    12. Gupta, Kuhika & Nowlin, Matthew C. & Ripberger, Joseph T. & Jenkins-Smith, Hank C. & Silva, Carol L., 2019. "Tracking the nuclear ‘mood’ in the United States: Introducing a long term measure of public opinion about nuclear energy using aggregate survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2019. "The interdependence between the saving rate and technology across regimes: evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 269-300, January.
    14. Ngene, Geoffrey & Tah, Kenneth A. & Darrat, Ali F., 2017. "Long memory or structural breaks: Some evidence for African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-73.
    15. Parma Chakravartti & Sudipto Mundle, 2017. "An Automatic Leading Indicator Based Growth Forecast For 2016-17 and The Outlook Beyond," Working Papers id:11773, eSocialSciences.
    16. Shernaz Bodhanwala & Harsh Purohit & Nidhi Choudhary, 2020. "The Causal Dynamics in Indian Agriculture Commodity Prices and Macro-Economic Variables in the Presence of a Structural Break," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 241-261, February.
    17. Meng Xu & Avishai Ceder & Ziyou Gao & Wei Guan, 2010. "Mass transit systems of Beijing: governance evolution and analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 709-729, September.
    18. Brown, William Jr. & Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2006. "Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 693-707, March.
    19. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Shimizu, Chihiro & Imai, Satoshi & Diewert, Erwin, 2016. "Alternative Approaches to Housing Services and Japanese CPI: -Bias from Nominal Rigidity of Rents-," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 35, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ccsesa:230373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ccsenet.org/sar .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.