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Modeling conversion to organic agriculture with an EU-wide farm model

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  • Kremmydas, Dimitrios
  • Ciaian, Pavel
  • Baldoni, Edoardo

Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of the Farm to Fork strategy (F2F) target of 25% organic farmland by 2030 in the EU using a farm level model. Two approaches are deployed to model conversion to organic agriculture. The first one, the endogenous approach, operates under the assumption that farm conversions to organic production result from assessing the utility difference between organic and conventional production systems. The exogenous approach relies on econometric estimation of the likelihood of farms to convert to organic driven by a combination of monetary and non-monetary drivers. The simulated impacts of the F2F target at the EU level vary depending on the chosen methodology. Gross income changes range from +3.8% under the endogenous approach to -1.3% under the exogenous approach. Both approaches forecast decreased production (-0.5% to -15%) for most crops and animal products upon achieving the organic target.

Suggested Citation

  • Kremmydas, Dimitrios & Ciaian, Pavel & Baldoni, Edoardo, 2023. "Modeling conversion to organic agriculture with an EU-wide farm model," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 12(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieabj:347566
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.347566
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    1. John Fairweather, 1999. "Understanding how farmers choose between organic and conventional production: Results from New Zealand and policy implications," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 16(1), pages 51-63, March.
    2. Michael Burton & Dan Rigby & Trevor Young, 1999. "Analysis of the Determinants of Adoption of Organic Horticultural Techniques in the UK," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 47-63, January.
    3. Bravo-Monroy, L. & Potts, S.G. & Tzanopoulos, J., 2016. "Drivers influencing farmer decisions for adopting organic or conventional coffee management practices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 49-61.
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    1. Dimitrios Kremmydas & Caetano Beber & Edoardo Baldoni & Pavel Ciaian & Thomas Fellmann & Alexander Gocht & Jordan Hristov & Davide Pignotti & Dolores Rey Vicario & Davit Stepanyan & Pascal Tillie, 2025. "The EU target for organic farming: Potential economic and environmental impacts of two alternative pathways," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 602-623, May.

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