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Modelling the adoption of automatic milking systems in Noord-Holland

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Listed:
  • Floridi, Matteo
  • Bartolini, Fabio
  • Peerlings, Jack
  • Polman, Nico
  • Viaggi, Davide

Abstract

Innovation and new technology adoption represent two central elements for the business and industry development process in agriculture. One of the most relevant innovations in dairy farms is the robotisation of the milking process through the adoption of Automatic Milking Systems (AMS). The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of selected Common Agricultural Policy measures on the adoption of AMS in dairy farms. The model developed is a dynamic farm-household model that is able to simulate the adoption of AMS taking into account the allocation of productive factors between on-farm and off-farm activities. The model simulates the decision to replace a traditional milking system with AMS using a Real Options approach that allows farmers to choose the optimal timing of investments. Results show that the adoption of AMS, and the timing of such a decision, is strongly affected by policy uncertainty and market conditions. The effect of this uncertainty is to postpone the decision to adopt the new technology until farmers have gathered enough information to reduce the negative effects of the technological lock-in. AMS adoption results in an increase in farm size and herd size due to the reduction in the labour required for milking operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Floridi, Matteo & Bartolini, Fabio & Peerlings, Jack & Polman, Nico & Viaggi, Davide, 2013. "Modelling the adoption of automatic milking systems in Noord-Holland," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieabj:149226
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.149226
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/149226/files/10882-23940-1-PB.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bartolini, Fabio & Latruffe, Laure & Viaggi, Davide, 2011. "Assessing the effect of the CAP on farm innovation adoption. An analysis in two French regions," 122nd Seminar, February 17-18, 2011, Ancona, Italy 99594, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Johannes Sauer & David Zilberman, 2012. "Sequential technology implementation, network externalities, and risk: the case of automatic milking systems," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 233-252, May.
    3. Davies, Stephen W., 1979. "Inter-firm diffusion of process innovations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-317, October.
    4. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Approach To Investment Analysis Of Automatic Milking Systems," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22216, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Sauer, J. & Zilbermann, D., 2010. "Innovation Behaviour At Farm Level – Selection And Identification," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    6. Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi, Davide, 2012. "An analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm: A case study in Emilia–Romagna (Italy)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 454-464.
    7. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2003. "Technological change and risk management: an application to the economics of corn production," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 125-142, October.
    8. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. "What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-153, April.
    9. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Stefan Tangermann & Alan Matthews & Davide Viaggi & Christophe Crombez & Louise Knops & Johan Swinnen, 2012. "The Common Agricultural Policy after 2013," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 47(6), pages 316-342, November.
    10. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Analysis of Automatic Milking Systems," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-13, October.
    11. Tsur, Yacov & Sternberg, Menachem & Hochman, Eithan, 1990. "Dynamic Modelling of Innovation Process Adoption with Risk Aversion and Learning," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 336-355, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charlton, Diane & Kostandini, Genti, 2018. "How Agricultural Producers Adjust to a Shrinking Farm Labor Supply," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274169, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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