Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific

Increasing livestock product consumption in many Asian countries has been accompanied by growth in some countries’ imports of feedgrains for their domestic livestock sectors. This contributes to debate over future levels of grain imports. Yet projections often pay little attention to developments in livestock production. The impacts of technological catch‐up in livestock production on trade in livestock and grains products among countries in the Asia‐Pacific region are assessed. Tests are conducted of the hypothesis that productivity levels in the Asia‐Pacific region are converging. Projections of livestock productivity are made and incorporated in a modified GTAP model. The consequences for regional and global trade in livestock and grains products are explored.