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Economic Sentiment Perceptions During COVID-19 Pandemic – A European Cross-Country Impact Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Iustina Alina Boitan

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Emilia Mioara Campeanu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Sanja Sever Malis

    (University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

An increasing body of recent literature focuses on how stock market investor sentiment fluctuates during the pandemic. However, a topic insufficiently addressed is related to investigating the changes occurred in the economic sentiment and expectations during COVID-19 pandemic, as a broader concept than stock market investors' perception and expectations. The paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the economic sentiment pattern in European Union countries, through two complementary research approaches: an exploratory data analysis technique represented by a hierarchic agglomerative clustering and a probabilistic GLM panel regression framework. Several official survey-based economic sentiment indices (Economic sentiment indicator, Employment expectations index, Composite leading indicator, Business confidence index, Consumer confidence index) are included in the empirical analysis to comprehensively reflect businesses and consumers’ current economic and employment perceptions and expectations on future developments. The clustering solution indicates increased heterogeneity among European countries and no stable group. The sentiment related to the employment consequences of the COVID-19 crisis records the sharpest fluctuation and is reflected in countries’ classification. The panel regression findings reveal that the number of new deaths is the most influential COVID-19 proxy variable, as it determines the evolution of most sentiment indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Iustina Alina Boitan & Emilia Mioara Campeanu & Sanja Sever Malis, 2021. "Economic Sentiment Perceptions During COVID-19 Pandemic – A European Cross-Country Impact Assessment," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(Special15), pages 982-982, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:23:y:2021:i:special15:p:982
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Elena-Simona Ionel, 2023. "Supplier selection strategy – NPV comparison," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 26(85), pages 78-85, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic sentiment; confidence index; expectations; COVID-19 pandemic; cluster analysis; panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • M10 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - General
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

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