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Trade Policies and Fiscal Devaluations

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  • Christopher Erceg
  • Andrea Prestipino
  • Andrea Raffo

Abstract

Fiscal devaluations—an increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsidies (VP)—have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed and the tax pass-through is large, VP is contractionary and IX provides a modest boost. In our medium-scale DSGE model, both features are crucial in accounting for Germany's underperformance in response to VP in 2007. These findings cast doubt on fiscal devaluations as a cyclical stabilization tool when monetary policy is constrained.

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  • Christopher Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2023. "Trade Policies and Fiscal Devaluations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 104-140, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:104-40
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210163
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fève, Patrick & Cahn, Christophe & Matheron, Julien, 2024. "The Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Rebalancing in a Heterogeneous-Agent Model," TSE Working Papers 24-1550, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2024/013, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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