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The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth
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Cited by:
- Menzie Chinn & Kavan Kucko, 2015.
"The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time,"
International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 129-156, June.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Kavan J. Kucko, 2010. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," NBER Working Papers 16398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013.
"No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
- Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
- Caroline JARDET & Alain MONFORT & Fulvio PEGORARO, 2011. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working Papers 2011-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2017. "The term structure of credit spreads and business cycle in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 27-36.
- Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
- Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001.
"La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?,"
Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l’information sur l’activité économique future ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
- Mody, Ashoka & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 2007.
"A cross-country financial accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 149-165, February.
- Taylor, Mark & Sarno, Lucio & Mody, Ashoka, 2005. "A Cross-Country Financial Accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 5037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023.
"ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
- Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 10449, CESifo.
- Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014.
"Information In The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 42-64, January.
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2014. "Information in the yield curve: A macro-finance approach," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2014007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania & Marco Lyrio, 2014. "Information in the yield curve: A Macro-Finance approach," Working Paper Research 254, National Bank of Belgium.
- Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread under the Veil of Time," Research Papers in Economics 2006:4, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
- Sun, Hang & Bos, Jaap W.B. & Li, Zhuo, 2017. "In the Nick of Time: A Heteroskedastic SVAR Model and Its Application to the Crude Oil Futures Market," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999.
"The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
- Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000. "The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," NBER Working Papers 7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grégory Levieuge & Christophe Blot, 2008.
"Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries,"
Sciences Po publications
2008-07, Sciences Po.
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00973056, HAL.
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIS good indicators of economic activity? Evidence from the G7 countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-00973056, HAL.
- Hibiki Ichiue, 2004.
"Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
581, Econometric Society.
- Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-11, Bank of Japan.
- Brown, Alessio J. G. & Žarnić, Žiga, 2003. "Explaining the increased German credit spread: The role of supply factors," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 412, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022.
"Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
- Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
- Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," Post-Print hal-03740235, HAL.
- Jacob Poke & Graeme Wells, 2009.
"The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia,"
The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 121-131, June.
- Jacob Poke & Graeme Wells, 2007. "The Term Spread And Gdp Growth In Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2007-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Jacob Poke & Graeme Wells, 2007. "The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia," Working Papers 2508, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised Nov 2007.
- Alan G. Ahearne & Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steven Scott MacDonald, 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013. "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 419-433, April.
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010.
"Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
- Andrea Cipollini & Nektarios Aslanidis, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 006, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2009. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Working Papers 2072/15810, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
- Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022.
"The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
- OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & TAKAOKA Sumiko, 2020. "The Credit Spread Curve Distribution and Economic Fluctuations in Japan," Discussion papers 20030, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Ayelen Banegas, 2016. "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1174, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008.
"Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Working Paper Series 802, European Central Bank.
- Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022.
"Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
- Bianchi, Francesco & Ludvigson, Sydney & Ma, Sai, 2020. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15003, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2020. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 27406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005.
"Forecasting recessions using the yield curve,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
- James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2011. "The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 124-132, May.
- Anna Florio, 2016.
"The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
- Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
- Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
- Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
- Haydory Akbar Ahmed & M. Wasiqur Rahman Khan, 2022. "Short-term and long-term interest rate spread’s dynamics to risk and the yield curve," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-19, October.
- Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
- Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
- Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
- Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2017. "Towards an asymmetric long run equilibrium between stock market uncertainty and the yield spread. A threshold vector error correction approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 267-279.
- Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008.
"Les indicateurs des conditions monétaires permettent-ils de prévoir l'activité économique ?,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 91-116.
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Les indicateurs des conditions monétaires permettent-ils de prévoir l'activité économique ?," Post-Print hal-03459798, HAL.
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Les indicateurs des conditions monétaires permettent-ils de prévoir l'activité économique ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459798, HAL.
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Les indicateurs des conditions monétaires permettent-ils de prévoir l'activité économique ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6407, Sciences Po.
- Kuosmanen, Petri & Nabulsi, Nasib & Vataja, Juuso, 2015. "Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 368-379.
- Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
- Cook, Douglas O. & Fu, Xudong & Tang, Tian, 2016. "Are target leverage ratios stable? Investigating the impact of corporate asset restructuring," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 150-168.
- Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
- Jennifer E. Roush, 2001. "Evidence uncovered: long-term interest rates, monetary policy, and the expectations theory," International Finance Discussion Papers 712, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Poshakwale, Sunil S. & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2016. "Determinants of asymmetric return comovements of gold and other financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 229-242.
- Omay, Tolga, 2008. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 28572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009.
"Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
- Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006.
"Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 741-760, December.
- Candelon, B. & Cubadda, G., 2005. "Testing for parameter stability in dynamic models across frequencies," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Bertrand Candelon & Gianluca Cubadda, 2006. "Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models Across Frequencies," CEIS Research Paper 82, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
- Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018.
"Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
- Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Stan Hurn & Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi, 2016. ""Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2058, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Liu, Feng & Kalotay, Egon & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Assessing sovereign default risk: A bottom-up approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 525-542.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Söderström, Ulf & Kaminska, Iryna, 2005.
"The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Matthew Harris & Raymond E. Owens & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2004. "Using manufacturing surveys to assess economic conditions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Fall), pages 65-92.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006.
"What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lennard van Gelder & Ad Stokman, 2006. "Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?," DNB Working Papers 106, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004.
"The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997,"
NBER Working Papers
10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Papers (Old Series) 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Michael Bordo & Joseph Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 165, Econometric Society.
- Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
- Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013.
"What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2010. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers 292010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005.
"El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia,"
Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, 2004. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 279, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6407 is not listed on IDEAS
- Anandadeep Mandal & Sunil S. Poshakwale & Gabriel J. Power, 2021. "Do investors gain from forecasting the asymmetric return co‐movements of financial and real assets?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3246-3268, July.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
- Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2002/008, International Monetary Fund.
- Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models," Kiel Working Papers 944, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
- James Peery Cover, 2011. "Risk and Macroeconomic Activity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(1), pages 149-166, July.
- N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2010. "Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis," Working Papers 1008, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Christophe BLOT & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2008.
"Are MCIs Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries,"
LEO Working Papers / DR LEO
244, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
- Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCls Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Post-Print halshs-00258303, HAL.
- Juan Ignacio Peña & Rosa Rodríguez, 2007. "On the Economic Link Between Asset Prices and Real Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 889-916, June.
- De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
- Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Time-varying predictive content of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 211-222.
- Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004.
"Does the Term Structure Predict Australia's Future Output Growth?,"
Economic Analysis and Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-144, September.
- Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Does The Term Structure Predict Australia’S Future Output Growth?," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 139, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.
- Raffaele Passaro, 2007. "The Predictive Power of Interest Rates Spread for Economic Activity," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 81-112, November-.
- Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020.
"The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets,"
Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
- Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Working Papers 202069, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Staff Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
- Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003.
"How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
- Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
- Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Stocker,Marc & Some,Modeste Y., 2016. "Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7770, The World Bank.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, 2003. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Bruinshoofd, W.A. & Candelon, B. & Raabe, K., 2005. "Banking sector strength and the transmission of currency crises," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
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