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Regime transplants in GDP growth forecasting: A recipe for better predictions?

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  • Lennard van Gelder
  • Ad Stokman

Abstract

Formal testing and estimation of nonlinear relations require a substantial number of observations which are typically lacking in annual models. In this paper, a novel two-step procedure is introduced to model nonlinearities in yearly asset-price based leading indicator models for growth. In the first step, quarterly data are explored to test for the presence of regime switches, the identif ication of transition variables and estimation of the accompanying thresholds. In the second step, we implement the quarterly thresholds in the annual indicator models. Results for the US and the Netherlands show that the annual forecasts improve compared to the linear model, despite the poor out-of-sample performance of the quarterly regime switching models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 106.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:106

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Keywords: leading indicators; gdp growth; non-linear models.;

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  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  10. Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Jonathan Thong, 2003. "Do Stock Market Returns Predict Changes to Output? Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Data Model," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 868, The University of Melbourne.
  11. P J A van Els & W A van den End & M C J van Rooij, 2005. "Financial behaviour of Dutch households: analysis of the DNB Household Survey 2003," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 21-39 Bank for International Settlements.
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