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Is the 50-state strategy optimal?

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  • Kovenock, Dan
  • Roberson, Brian

Abstract

In 2005, the Democratic National Committee adopted the 50-state strategy in lieu of the strategy of focusing solely on battleground states. The rationale given for this move is that campaign expenditures are durable outlays that impact both current and future campaigns. This paper investigates the optimality of the 50-state strategy in a simple dynamic game of campaign resource allocation in which expenditures act as a form of investment. Neither the 50-state nor the battleground-states strategy is likely to arise in equilibrium. Instead, parties employ a modified battleground-states strategy in which they stochastically target non-battleground states. -- Im Jahr 2005 führte das Organisationskomitee der Demokratischen Partei die 50-Staaten-Strategie anstelle der alleinigen Fokussierung auf Entscheidungsstaaten ein. Grund hierfür ist, dass Kampagnenausgaben lang wirkende Ausgaben sind, welche sowohl laufende als auch zukünftige Wahlkämpfe beeinflussen. Der vorliegende Aufsatz untersucht die Optimalität der 50- Staaten-Strategie in einem einfachen dynamischen Allokationsspiel von Kampagnemitteln, in welchem Ausgaben eine Form der Investition darstellen. Für ein Gleichgewicht sind jedoch weder die Strategie der 50-Staaten noch die der Entscheidungsstaaten wahrscheinlich. Vielmehr wenden Parteien eine modifizierte Entscheidungsstaaten-Strategie an, im Rahmen derer sie stochastisch auch auf Nicht-Entscheidungsstaaten abzielen.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance with number SP II 2008-16.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbmpg:spii200816

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Keywords: Political campaigns; dynamic contests; elections; all-pay auction; war of attrition;

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References

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  1. Kai A. Konrad & Dan Kovenock, 2005. "Equilibrium and Efficiency in the Tug-of-War," CESifo Working Paper Series 1564, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Marinelli, Carlo, 2007. "The stochastic goodwill problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 389-404, January.
  3. Konrad, Kai A & Kovenock, Dan, 2006. "Multi-Battle Contests," CEPR Discussion Papers 5645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lien, Da-Hsiang Donald, 1990. "Corruption and allocation efficiency," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-164, July.
  5. Mattias Polborn, 2006. "Investment under Uncertainty in Dynamic Conflicts," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 505-529.
  6. Kovenock, D. & de Vries, C.G., 1995. "The All-Pay Auction with Complete Information," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 311.95, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  7. repec:bla:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:2:p:505-529 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Kvasov, Dmitriy, 2007. "Contests with limited resources," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 738-748, September.
  9. Klumpp, Tilman & Polborn, Mattias K., 2006. "Primaries and the New Hampshire Effect," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1073-1114, August.
  10. Clark, Derek J. & Riis, Christian, 2000. "Allocation efficiency in a competitive bribery game," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 109-124, May.
  11. Gustav Feichtinger & Richard F. Hartl & Suresh P. Sethi, 1994. "Dynamic Optimal Control Models in Advertising: Recent Developments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 195-226, February.
  12. Kovenock, Dan & Robertson, Brian, 2005. "Electoral Poaching and Party Identification," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1178, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  13. Alex Robson, 2005. "Multi-Item Contests," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2005-446, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  14. Brian Roberson, 2006. "The Colonel Blotto game," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-24, September.
  15. Nicolas Sahuguet & Nicola Persico, 2006. "Campaign spending regulation in a model of redistributive politics," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 95-124, 05.
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Cited by:
  1. Megidish, Reut & Sela, Aner, 2011. "Sequential Contests with Synergy and Budget Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 8383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Aner Sela & Reut Megidish, 2012. "Sequential Contests With Synergy And Budget Constraints," Working Papers 1212, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.

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