A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices
AbstractWe study an exchange economy with overlapping generations of consumers who derive utility from consuming a non-durable commodity and housing. A banking sector offers loans to finance housing. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium dynamics which alternates between an expansive regime where housing prices increase and banks expand loans and a contractive regime associated with decreasing housing values and shrinking credit volume. Regime switches occur even under small but persistent income changes giving rise to large and recurrent booms and busts in housing prices not reflecting changes in fundamentals. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering in its series Working Paper Series in Economics with number 40.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
OLG; Housing prices; Credit volume; Boom-bust scenarios; Regime switching;
Other versions of this item:
- Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2012. "A Mechanism for Booms and Busts in Housing Prices," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62042, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-06-13 (Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2012-06-13 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-URE-2012-06-13 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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