This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Expectations Formation and Forecasting of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study of the Vehicle Quota Auctions in Singapore

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Sing-Fat Chu () (National University of Singapore)
Winston T.H. Koh () (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)
Yiu Kuen Tse () (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper studies the expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand in Singapore under the vehicle quota system. Under the system, a car buyer must first bid for a vehicle license in monthly auctions in order to purchase a new car. We construct an econometric model to test the hypothesis that past bid distributions of the license auctions contain information that car buyers can use to update their expectations about the intensity of market demand, forecast the license premiums and formulate their bidding strategies in future auctions. Our empirical analysis indicates that past bid distributions have a good degree of predictive power for the license premiums.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mercury.smu.edu.sg/rsrchpubupload/1820/VehicleDdForecasting_CSF_WK_TYK.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02-2004.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:02-2004

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 90 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903
Phone: 65-6828 0832
Fax: 65-6828 0833
Web page: http://www.economics.smu.edu.sg/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (QL THor).

Related research
Keywords: quota licenses; vehicle demand; learning; expectations formation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Chin, Anthony & Smith, Peter, 1997. "Automobile ownership and government policy: The economics of Singapore's vehicle quota scheme," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 129-140, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chu, Singfat, 2002. "Auctioning rights to vehicle ownership: Singapore's experience with sealed-bid tenders," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 555-561, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Singfat, Chu-Chun-Lin, 1998. "Bidding Efficiencies for Rights to Car Ownership in Singapore," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 297-306, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All full texts are decentralized with the publishers, none reside on this server, thus making it possible to offer this service for free to all parties.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.