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An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

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Author Info

  • Philipp Kircher

    (LSE and University of Edinburgh)

  • Michele Tertilt

    (University of Mannheim)

  • Cezar Santos

    (University of Mannheim)

  • Jeremy Greenwood

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Eleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 195.

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Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:195

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  1. Dana Goldman & Darius Lakdawalla & Neeraj Sood, 2004. "HIV Breakthroughs and Risk Sexual Behavior," NBER Working Papers 10516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Serene Tan & Nicolas L Jacquet, 2005. "On the Segmentation of Markets," 2005 Meeting Papers 456, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  1. An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-04-15 21:45:56
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Cited by:
  1. Rodolfo Manuelli, 2011. "Disease and Development: The Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 2011-008, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  2. Jeremy Greenwood, 2011. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Jeremy Greenwood on DGE beyond Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), April.
  3. Michèle Tertilt, 2012. "The Research Agenda: Michèle Tertilt on Gender in Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), November.

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