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Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi

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Author Info

  • Adeline Delavande

    (RAND)

  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we present a newly-developed interactive elicitation methodology to collect probabilistic expectations in a developing country context with low levels of literacy and numeracy, and we evaluate the feasibility and success of this method for a wide range of outcomes in rural Malawi. We find that respondent's answers about subjective expectations respect basic properties of probabilities, and vary meaningfully with observable characteristics and past experience. From a substantive point of view, the elicited expectations indicate that individuals are generally aware of differential risks. For example, individuals with less income and less land feel rightly at more risk of financial distress than people with higher SES, or people who are divorced or widow feel rightly at more risk of being infected with HIV than currently married individuals. While many expectations---including also the probability of being currently infected with HIV---are well-calibrated compared to actual probabilities, mortality expectations are substantially over-estimated compared to lifetable estimates. This overestimation may lead individuals to underestimate the benefits of adopting HIV risk-reduction strategies. The skewed distribution of expectations about condom use also suggests that a small group of innovators are the forerunners in the adoption of condoms within marriage for HIV prevention.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol20/31/20-31.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 31 (June)
    Pages: 817-875

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:20:y:2009:i:31

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

    Related research

    Keywords: AIDS/HIV; Malawi; probabilistic expectations; risk perception; subjective expectations; Sub-Saharan Africa; survey methodology;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Michael Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2003. "The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirements and Social Security Claiming," Working Papers 03-11, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
    2. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 4936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lance Lochner, 2003. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," NBER Working Papers 9474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
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    7. Emily Oster, 2007. "HIV and Sexual Behavior Change: Why Not Africa?," NBER Working Papers 13049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Susan Watkins & Jere R. Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & Eliya Zulu, 2003. "Introduction to "Research on Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa"," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
    10. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, 08.
    11. Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November.
    12. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
    13. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4824, The World Bank.
    14. Chimbiri, Agnes M., 2007. "The condom is an 'intruder' in marriage: Evidence from rural Malawi," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 1102-1115, March.
    15. Tülin Erdem & Michael Keane & T. Öncü & Judi Strebel, 2005. "Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 207-247, September.
    16. Auld, M. Christopher, 2003. "Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 361-377, May.
    17. Adeline Delavande & Robert Willis, 2007. "Managing the Risk of Life," Working Papers wp167, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    18. Philip Anglewicz & jimi adams & Francis Obare & Hans-Peter Kohler & Susan Watkins, 2009. "The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(21), pages 503-540, May.
    19. Lee Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 2001. "Cognition and Wealth: The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking," Working Papers wp007, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    20. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2003. "Bayesian Herders: Asymmetric Updating Of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Forecasts," Working Papers 14762, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
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    Cited by:
    1. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4824, The World Bank.
    2. Jeremy Greenwood, 2011. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Jeremy Greenwood on DGE beyond Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), April.

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