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Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi

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Author Info
Adeline Delavande (RAND)
Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania)
Abstract

In this paper we present a newly-developed interactive elicitation methodology to collect probabilistic expectations in a developing country context with low levels of literacy and numeracy, and we evaluate the feasibility and success of this method for a wide range of outcomes in rural Malawi. We find that respondent's answers about subjective expectations respect basic properties of probabilities, and vary meaningfully with observable characteristics and past experience. From a substantive point of view, the elicited expectations indicate that individuals are generally aware of differential risks. For example, individuals with less income and less land feel rightly at more risk of financial distress than people with higher SES, or people who are divorced or widow feel rightly at more risk of being infected with HIV than currently married individuals. While many expectations---including also the probability of being currently infected with HIV---are well-calibrated compared to actual probabilities, mortality expectations are substantially over-estimated compared to lifetable estimates. This overestimation may lead individuals to underestimate the benefits of adopting HIV risk-reduction strategies. The skewed distribution of expectations about condom use also suggests that a small group of innovators are the forerunners in the adoption of condoms within marriage for HIV prevention.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 31 (June)
Pages: 817-875
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Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:20:y:2009:i:31

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Related research
Keywords: AIDS/HIV; Malawi; probabilistic expectations; risk perception; subjective expectations; Sub-Saharan Africa; survey methodology;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Emily Oster, 2007. "HIV and Sexual Behavior Change: Why Not Africa?," NBER Working Papers 13049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2004. "The effects of subjective survival on retirement and Social Security claiming," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 761-775. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Susan Watkins & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & Eliya Zulu, 2003. "Introduction to "Research on Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa"," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tülin Erdem & Michael Keane & T. Öncü & Judi Strebel, 2005. "Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 207-247, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lance Lochner, 2007. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 444-460, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Auld, M. Christopher, 2003. "Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 361-377, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Adeline Delavande & Robert Willis, 2007. "Managing the Risk of Life," Working Papers wp167, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  9. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2003. "Bayesian Herders: Asymmetric Updating Of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Forecasts," Working Papers 14762, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4824, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Yaw Nyarko & Andrew Schotter, 2002. "An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 971-1005, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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