Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi
Abstract
In this paper we present a newly-developed interactive elicitation methodology to collect probabilistic expectations in a developing country context with low levels of literacy and numeracy, and we evaluate the feasibility and success of this method for a wide range of outcomes in rural Malawi. We find that respondent's answers about subjective expectations respect basic properties of probabilities, and vary meaningfully with observable characteristics and past experience. From a substantive point of view, the elicited expectations indicate that individuals are generally aware of differential risks. For example, individuals with less income and less land feel rightly at more risk of financial distress than people with higher SES, or people who are divorced or widow feel rightly at more risk of being infected with HIV than currently married individuals. While many expectations---including also the probability of being currently infected with HIV---are well-calibrated compared to actual probabilities, mortality expectations are substantially over-estimated compared to lifetable estimates. This overestimation may lead individuals to underestimate the benefits of adopting HIV risk-reduction strategies. The skewed distribution of expectations about condom use also suggests that a small group of innovators are the forerunners in the adoption of condoms within marriage for HIV prevention.Download Info
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Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.
Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 31 (June)
Pages: 817-875
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/
Related research
Keywords: AIDS/HIV; Malawi; probabilistic expectations; risk perception; subjective expectations; Sub-Saharan Africa; survey methodology;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009.
"Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4824, The World Bank.
- Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
- Jeremy Greenwood, 2011. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Jeremy Greenwood on DGE beyond Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), April.
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