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Bubbles and Self-fulfilling Crises

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  • Edouard Challe

    ()
    (CNRS-CEREG public)

  • Xavier Ragot

Abstract

Financial crises are often associated with an endogenous credit reversal followed by a fall in asset prices and serious disruptions in the financial sector. To account for this sequence of events, this paper constructs a model where the excessive risk-taking of portfolio investors leads to a bubble in asset prices (in the spirit of Allen and Gale, 'Bubbles and Crises', Economic Journal, 2000), and where the supply of credit to these investors is endogenous. We show that the interplay between the risk shifting problem and the endogeneity of credit may give rise multiple equilibria associated with di¤erent levels of lending, asset prices, and output. Stochastic equilibria lead, with positive probability, to an ine¢ cient liquidity dry-up at the intermediate date, a market crash, and widespread failures of borrowers. The possibility of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling crises is showed to be related to the severity of the risk shifting problem in the economy

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 254.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:254

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Keywords: Credit market imperfections; self-fulfilling expectations; financial crises.;

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  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 2529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Working Papers 01.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  5. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
  6. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  7. Edison, Hali J & Luangaram, Pongsak & Miller, Marcus, 2000. "Asset Bubbles, Leverage and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 309-34, January.
  8. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  9. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1976. "Optimal Financial Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot money," Staff Report 228, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Challe, Edouard, 2004. "Sunspots and predictable asset returns," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/2739, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
  16. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  17. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Edouard Challe & Benoit Monjon & Xavier Ragot, 2012. "Equilibrium Risk Shifting and Interest Rate in an Opaque Financial System," Working Papers hal-00719952, HAL.
  2. Petr VALOUCH & Jaroslav SEDLÁCEK & Alois KONECNÝ, 2012. "Analysis of the Behavior Mergermarket in the Conditions the Financial Crisis," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 37-44.
  3. Dubecq, S. & Mojon, B. & Ragot, X., 2009. "Fuzzy Capital Requirements, Risk-Shifting and the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Working papers 254, Banque de France.
  4. repec:hal:psewpa:hal-00719952 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Sylvain Champonnois, 2011. "The limits of market discipline: proprietary trading and aggregate risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1013, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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