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Bubbles and Self-fulfilling Crises

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  • Edouard Challe

    ()
    (CNRS-CEREG public)

  • Xavier Ragot

Abstract

Financial crises are often associated with an endogenous credit reversal followed by a fall in asset prices and serious disruptions in the financial sector. To account for this sequence of events, this paper constructs a model where the excessive risk-taking of portfolio investors leads to a bubble in asset prices (in the spirit of Allen and Gale, 'Bubbles and Crises', Economic Journal, 2000), and where the supply of credit to these investors is endogenous. We show that the interplay between the risk shifting problem and the endogeneity of credit may give rise multiple equilibria associated with di¤erent levels of lending, asset prices, and output. Stochastic equilibria lead, with positive probability, to an ine¢ cient liquidity dry-up at the intermediate date, a market crash, and widespread failures of borrowers. The possibility of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling crises is showed to be related to the severity of the risk shifting problem in the economy

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 254.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:254

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Keywords: Credit market imperfections; self-fulfilling expectations; financial crises.;

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  1. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
  2. Banerjee, Abhijit & Bacchetta, Philippe & Aghion, Philippe, 2001. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Scholarly Articles 4554218, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  4. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1262-1292, December.
  8. Challe, Edouard, 2004. "Sunspots and predictable asset returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 182-190, March.
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 11618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  13. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1976. "Optimal Financial Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  14. Edison, Hali J & Luangaram, Pongsak & Miller, Marcus, 2000. "Asset Bubbles, Leverage and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 309-34, January.
  15. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
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  17. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now," MPRA Paper 13877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Edouard Challe & Benoit Monjon & Xavier Ragot, 2012. "Equilibrium Risk Shifting and Interest Rate in an Opaque Financial System," Working Papers hal-00719952, HAL.
  2. Dubecq, S. & Mojon, B. & Ragot, X., 2009. "Fuzzy Capital Requirements, Risk-Shifting and the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Working papers 254, Banque de France.
  3. repec:hal:psewpa:hal-00719952 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Sylvain Champonnois, 2011. "The limits of market discipline: proprietary trading and aggregate risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1013, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Petr VALOUCH & Jaroslav SEDLÁCEK & Alois KONECNÝ, 2012. "Analysis of the Behavior Mergermarket in the Conditions the Financial Crisis," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 37-44.

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