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Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-

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  • Joshi, Niraj Prakash
  • Maharjan, Keshav Lall
  • Piya, Luni

Abstract

Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries like Nepal where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. Plausible scenarios of climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. Therefore, this study assesses the effect of observed climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, millet, barley and potato based on regression model for historical (1978-2008) climatic data and yield data for the food-crops. The yield growth rate of all the food-crops is positive. However, the growth rate for all crops, except potato and wheat, is below population growth rate during the period. Climate variables like temperature and precipitation are the important determinants of crop yields. Trend of precipitation is neither increasing nor decreasing significantly during this period. However, temperature is increasing by 0.7 0C during the period. Climate variables show some influences on the yield of these major food-crops in Nepal. Increase in summer rain and maximum temperature has contributed positively to rice yield. Also, increase in summer rain and minimum temperature has positive impact on potato yield. However, increase in summer rain and maximum temperature adversely affected the yield of maize and millet. Increase in wheat and barley yield is contributed by current trend of winter rain and temperature. Consideration of spatial variation in similar type of study in Nepal that will be helpful in identifying the region more vulnerable to climate change in terms of crop yield is highly recommended.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35379.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35379

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Keywords: Climate variables; temperature; rainfall; food-crops; Nepal;

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References

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  1. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2010. "Poverty and Food Insecurity in Nepal A Review," MPRA Paper 35387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Carew, Richard & Smith, Elwin G. & Grant, Cynthia, 2009. "Factors Influencing Wheat Yield and Variability: Evidence from Manitoba, Canada," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(03), December.
  3. Beach, Robert H. & Thomson, Allison M. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Climate Change Impacts On Us Agriculture," Proceedings Issues, 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart- Hohenheim, Germany 91393, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  4. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields: The importance of non-linear temperature effects," Discussion Papers 0607-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  5. Kim, Man-Keun & Pang, Arwin, 2009. "Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 32(2), June.
  6. You, Liangzhi & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fang, Cheng & Wood, Stanley, 2005. "Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity:," EPTD discussion papers 143, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
  8. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Santosh Poudel & Koji Kotani, 2013. "Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 327-355, January.

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