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An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms

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  • Seo, S. Niggol
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This paper explores how South American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. We develop a multinomial logit model of farmer's choice of crops. Estimating the model across 949 farmers in seven countries, we find that both temperature and precipitation affect the crops that South American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, potatoes, and squash and in dryer locations maize and wheat. Global warming will cause South American farmers to switch away from maize, wheat, and potatoes towards squash, fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change on net revenue must reflect not only changes in yields per crop but also crop switching.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

Volume (Year): 67 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 109-116

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:67:y:2008:i:1:p:109-116

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

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Keywords: Climate change Impacts Adaptations Multinomial logit Crop switching;

References

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  1. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Crop selection : adapting to climage change in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4307, The World Bank.
  2. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, Spring.
  3. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  4. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
  5. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4163, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Daiju Narita & Martin F. Quaas, 2012. "Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Do It Now or Wait and See?," Kiel Working Papers 1809, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
  3. David Abson & Mette Termansen & Unai Pascual & Uzma Aslam & Carlo Fezzi & Ian Bateman, 2014. "Valuing Climate Change Effects Upon UK Agricultural GHG Emissions: Spatial Analysis of a Regulating Ecosystem Service," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(2), pages 215-231, February.
  4. Azam Lashkari & Amin Alizadeh & Ehsan Rezaei & Mohammad Bannayan, 2012. "Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: a simulation study," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, January.
  5. Lippert, Christian & Chatzopoulos, Thomas & Schmidtner, Eva & Aurbacher, Joachim, 2011. "Explaining The Climate-Dependent Distribution Of Crops In Space –The Example Of Corn And Corn-Cob-Mix In Baden-Württemberg," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114504, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  6. Claudia Schwirplies & Andreas Ziegler, 2013. "Are German Tourists Environmental Chameleons? A Micro-econometric Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201334, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  7. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2013. "How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 743-766.
  8. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun, 2008. "How China's farmers adapt to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4758, The World Bank.
  9. Seo, S. Niggol & McCarl, Bruce A. & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2010. "From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2486-2494, October.
  10. Kaminski, Jonathan & Kan, Iddo & Fleischer, Aliza, 2011. "A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach," Discussion Papers 120076, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
  11. Mulatu Debalke, Negash, 2011. "Determinants of farmers’ preference for adaptation strategies to climate change: evidence from north shoa zone of Amhara region Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 48753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. repec:mar:magkse:20134 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Yonas Alem & Mintewab Bezabih & Menale Kassie & Precious Zikhali, 2010. "Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 165-175, 03.
  14. Kim, Chung-Sil & Jung, Hye-Kyung & Lee, Sang-Ho & Park, Soo-Young & Takei, Atsuo, 2012. "An Analysis on Determinants of Farmers´ Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 35(2), July.
  15. Yu, Qiangyi & Wu, Wenbin & Verburg, Peter H. & van Vliet, Jasper & Yang, Peng & Zhou, Qingbo & Tang, Huajun, 2013. "A survey-based exploration of land-system dynamics in an agricultural region of Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 106-116.
  16. Kam, S.P. & Badjeck, M.C. & Teh, L. & Teh, L. & Tran, N., 2012. "Autonomous adaptation to climate change by shrimp and catfish farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong River delta," Working Papers, The WorldFish Center, number 40061.
  17. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Baylis, Katherine R. & Lipper, Leslie, 2012. "Land Degradation’s Implications on Agricultural Value of Production in Ethiopia: A look inside the bowl," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126251, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  18. Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay & Limin Wang & Marcus Wijnen, 2011. "Improving Household Survey Instruments for Understanding Agricultural Household Adaptation to Climate Change : Water Stress and Variability," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12764, The World Bank.
  19. Owusu, Victor & Abdulai, Awudu, 2009. "Joint Adoption of Safer Irrigation Technologies under Uncertainty: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 43822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Cunha, Denis Antonio da & Coelho, Alexandre Braganca & Feres, Jose & Braga, Marcelo Jose, 2012. "Impacts of climate change on Brazilian agriculture: an analysis of irrigation as an adaptation strategy," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126223, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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