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Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?

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  • Santosh Poudel

    ()

  • Koji Kotani

    ()

Abstract

A rapid change in climate patterns potentially driven by global warming is considered to be greatest threats to agriculture. However, little is known about how the change in climate concretely affects agricultural production especially in Nepal with respect to seasons and regions of different altitudes. To examine this issue, we seek to empirically identify the impact of climatic variation on agricultural yield and its variability by utilizing the data of rice, wheat and climate variables in the central region of Nepal. The main focus is on whether the impacts vary across seasons, altitudes and the types of crops. For this purpose, we employ a stochastic production function approach by controlling a novel set of season-wise climatic and geographical variables. The result shows that an increase in the variance of both temperature and rainfall has adverse effects on crop productions in general. On the other hand, a change in the mean levels of the temperature and rainfall induces heterogeneous impacts, which can be considered beneficial, harmful or negligible, depending on the altitudes and the kinds of crops. These results imply that adaptation strategies must be tailor-made in Nepalese agriculture, considering growing seasons, altitudes and the types of crops. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0491-8
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 116 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
Pages: 327-355

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Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:116:y:2013:i:2:p:327-355

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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

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  1. Koundouri, Phoebe & Nauges, Celine, 2005. "On Production Function Estimation with Selectivity and Risk Considerations," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(03), December.
  2. You, Liangzhi & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fang, Cheng & Wood, Stanley, 2005. "Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity:," EPTD discussion papers 143, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Carew, Richard & Smith, Elwin G. & Grant, Cynthia, 2009. "Factors Influencing Wheat Yield and Variability: Evidence from Manitoba, Canada," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(03), December.
  4. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
  6. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  7. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen & Suchita Srinivasan, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on the Indian Economy-Evidence from Foodgrain Yields," Working papers 218, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

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