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An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability

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  • Murat Isik
  • Stephen Devadoss
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    Abstract

    This paper develops an econometric model of stochastic production functions to quantify the impacts of climatic variables on the mean, variance, and covariance of crop yields. The estimates of the production function parameters and their elasticities are utilized to analyse the impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture. The results show that the climate change will have modest effects on the mean crop yields, but will significantly reduce the variance and covariance for most of the crops considered. The results have implications for allocations of agricultural land among crops and for crop production mix.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500193682
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 7 ()
    Pages: 835-844

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:7:p:835-844

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    Cited by:
    1. Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Li, Man, 2009. "Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), October.
    2. Niklaus Lehmann, 2011. "Regional Crop Modeling: How Future Climate May Impact Crop Yields in Switzerland," Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture, Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 4(1), pages 269-291.
    3. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Finger, Robert & Schmid, St├ęphanie, 2007. "Modelling Agricultural Production Risk and the Adaptation to Climate Change," MPRA Paper 3943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Claire Mosnier & Arnaud Reynaud & Alban Thomas & Michel Lherm & Jacques Agabriel, 2009. "Estimating a production function under production and output price risks: An application to beef cattle in France," LERNA Working Papers 09.10.286, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    6. Malcolm, Scott A. & Marshall, Elizabeth P. & Aillery, Marcel P. & Heisey, Paul W. & Livingston, Michael J. & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A., 2012. "Regional Economic and Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the United States," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124674, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Kelbore, Zerihun Getachew, 2012. "An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Yield Variability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 49466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tveteras, Ragnar & Flaten, Ola & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2008. "Production risk in multi-output industries: estimates from Norwegian dairy farms," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43958, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Parcell, Joseph L. & Cain, Jewelwayne, 2013. "Drought Tolerance of Soybean Crops in Missouri," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142507, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Attavanich, Witsanu & McCarl, Bruce A. & Fuller, Stephen W. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Ahmedov, Zafarbek, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Transportation Flows and Inland Waterways Due to Climate-Induced Shifts in Crop Production Patterns," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 109241, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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