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Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China

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Author Info

  • Rainer Holst

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Xiaohua Yu

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Carola Grün

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Abstract

This paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South China could entail an increase of grain output by 3.79 million tons or an economic benefit of around USD 798 million due to the increasing mean output. However the impact of global warming in north China is negative, small and insignificant. In addition, Hausman tests reveal no endogeneity of climate variables in Chinese grain production.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Courant Research Centre PEG in its series Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers with number 68.

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Date of creation: 08 Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:068

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Keywords: Agriculture; grain production; climate change; production risk; China;

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  1. von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
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