Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China
AbstractThis paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South China could entail an increase of grain output by 3.79 million tons or an economic benefit of around USD 798 million due to the increasing mean output. However the impact of global warming in north China is negative, small and insignificant. In addition, Hausman tests reveal no endogeneity of climate variables in Chinese grain production.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Courant Research Centre PEG in its series Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers with number 68.
Date of creation: 08 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
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Agriculture; grain production; climate change; production risk; China;
Other versions of this item:
- Holst, Rainer & Yu, Xiaohua & Grun, Carola, 2010. "Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61177, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2011-02-19 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2011-02-19 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-ENE-2011-02-19 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2011-02-19 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-02-19 (Transition Economics)
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- von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
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