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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector

Author

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  • José Gustavo Féres

    (IPEA)

  • Eustáquio José Reis

    (IPEA)

  • Juliana Speranza

    (IPEA)

Abstract

Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a agricultura brasileira tanto em termos da rentabilidade agrícola quanto do preço da terra. Para este fim, são estimados dois modelos econométricos: o modelo de efeitos fixos, segundo a metodologia desenvolvida por Deschênes e Greenstone (2007), e o modelo de preços hedônicos proposto por Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Ambos os modelos são estimados utilizando dados de painel para os municípios brasileiros no período de 1970-1995. Os resultados das simulações sugerem que o impacto das mudanças climáticas no setor agrícola brasileiro será relativamente modesto no médio prazo. Contudo, estes impactos tendem a tornar-se significativamente mais severos no longo prazo--------------------------This paper aims at estimating the effects of climate change on the Brazilian agriculture both in terms of agricultural profitability and land values. To accomplish this task, we estimate two econometric models: the fixed-effects model proposed by Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) and the hedonic model proposed by Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Both models are estimated for a panel of municipalities covering the period 1970-1995. Simulation results suggest that the overall impact of climate change will be quite modest for the Brazilian agriculture in the medium term, but these impacts are considerably more severe in the long term.
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Suggested Citation

  • José Gustavo Féres & Eustáquio José Reis & Juliana Speranza, 2008. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181438190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807181438190
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    2. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    3. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    5. William D. Nordhaus & Robert Mendelsohn, 1999. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1046-1048, September.
    6. repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Robert Mendelsohn (ed.), 2001. "Global Warming and the American Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2304.
    8. Richard M. Adams, 1989. "Global Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1272-1279.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pires, Marcel Viana & Cunha, Dênis Antônio da, 2014. "Climate Change and Adaptive Strategies in Brazil: the economic effects of genetic breeding," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 52(4), pages 1-16, December.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050," World Bank Publications - Reports 12475, The World Bank Group.
    3. Holst, Rainer & Yu, Xiaohua, 2010. "Climate Change And Production Risk In Chinese Aquaculture," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91275, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    5. Holst, Rainer & Yu, Xiaohua & Grun, Carola, 2010. "Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61177, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Nicole Rennó Castro & Humberto Francisco Silva Spolador & Fábio Ricardo Marin, 2020. "Assessing the economy–climate relationships for Brazilian agriculture," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1161-1188, September.
    7. Nuñez, Hector M. & Chakrabortu, Lopamudra & Robles-Chavez, Jesus Eduardo, 2021. "Impacts of Weather Shocks on Crop Yields in Mexico," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314988, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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