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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector


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  • Feres, Jose Gustavo
  • Reis, Eustaquio Jose
  • Speranza, Juliana Simoes
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    Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a agricultura brasileira tanto em termos da rentabilidade agrícola quanto do preço da terra. Para este fim, são estimados dois modelos econométricos: o modelo de efeitos fixos, segundo a metodologia desenvolvida por Deschênes e Greenstone (2007), e o modelo de preços hedônicos proposto por Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Ambos os modelos são estimados utilizando dados de painel para os municípios brasileiros no período de 1970-1995. Os resultados das simulações sugerem que o impacto das mudanças climáticas no setor agrícola brasileiro será relativamente modesto no médio prazo. Contudo, estes impactos tendem a tornar-se significativamente mais severos no longo prazo--------------------------This paper aims at estimating the effects of climate change on the Brazilian agriculture both in terms of agricultural profitability and land values. To accomplish this task, we estimate two econometric models: the fixed-effects model proposed by Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) and the hedonic model proposed by Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Both models are estimated for a panel of municipalities covering the period 1970-1995. Simulation results suggest that the overall impact of climate change will be quite modest for the Brazilian agriculture in the medium term, but these impacts are considerably more severe in the long term.

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    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 108136.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108136

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    Keywords: Mudanças climáticas; análise ricardiana; agricultura brasileira; Climate change; Ricardian analysis; Brazilian agriculture; Environmental Economics and Policy;


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    1. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    2. repec:reg:rpubli:291 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. World Bank, 2010. "Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12475, The World Bank.


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