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Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for the United Nations sustainable development goals 2 and 6

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  • Hasan, M. Mehedi
  • Alauddin, Mohammad
  • Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur
  • Jakaria, Mohammad
  • Alamgir, Mahiuddin

Abstract

Significant manifestations of adverse effects of climate change exist for crop agriculture throughout the developing world including Bangladesh. Despite wheat being the second most important staple food, any rigorous analysis of its sensitivity to climate change remains an unexplored area of research. This paper fills this gap by investigating wheat yield sensitivity to climate change over time and across climatic zones using 45-year district level panel data. Results revealed rising trends in average seasonal temperature and number of seasonal dry days and downward trends in planting and flowering stage rainfall. The rise in average temperature and number of dry days adversely affected wheat yield while greater planting and flowering stage rainfall has improved yield. Significant variations across regions and a positive trend over time were evident. The study’s policy implications are explored in terms of the potential to expand wheat cultivation and its role in achieving SDG 2 regarding food security and SDG 6 concerning sustainable water management. Strengthening institutional support systems, market accessibility, science-driven climate change adaptations - including generation and dissemination of drought tolerant wheat varieties and enhancing farmers’ capacity to switch from rice to wheat, constitute key areas of policy intervention critically important for achieving SDG 2 and SDG 6.

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  • Hasan, M. Mehedi & Alauddin, Mohammad & Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur & Jakaria, Mohammad & Alamgir, Mahiuddin, 2019. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for the United Nations sustainable development goals 2 and 6," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:87:y:2019:i:c:s0264837719302066
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104023
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    1. Alauddin, Mohammad & Tisdell, Clement & Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid, 2021. "Do trends in Bangladeshi rice yields support Conway’s hypotheses about the consequences of modern agroecosystems?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 342-354.
    2. Clement Tisdell & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Md Anwarul Kabir, 2019. "Agricultural Diversity and Sustainability: General Features and Bangladeshi Illustrations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Mohammad Alauddin & Clement A Tisdell & Md Abdur Rashid Sarker, 2021. "Seven Decades of Changing Seasonal Land Use for Rice Production in Bangladesh, 1947-2019: Trends, Patterns and Implications," Economics, Ecology and Environment Working Papers 316555, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    4. Alauddin, Mohammad & Tisdell, Clement A. & Rashid Sarkar, Md Abdur, 2021. "Have Conway's Predictions about the Effects of the Green Revolution been Realized? An Investigation of Six Decades of Bangladeshi Rice Data," Economics, Ecology and Environment Working Papers 308877, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    5. Alauddin, Mohammad & Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur & Islam, Zeenatul & Tisdell, Clement, 2020. "Adoption of alternate wetting and drying (AWD) irrigation as a water-saving technology in Bangladesh: Economic and environmental considerations," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Navid Kargar Dehbidi & Mansour Zibaei & Mohammad Hassan Tarazkar, 2022. "The effect of climate change and energy shocks on food security in Iran's provinces," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 417-437, April.
    7. Muhammad Azizuddin & Ahm Shamsuzzoha & Sujan Piya, 2021. "Influence of Circular Economy Phenomenon to Fulfil Global Sustainable Development Goal: Perspective from Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.

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