IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v62y2017icp43-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal

Author

Listed:
  • Chalise, Sudarshan
  • Naranpanawa, Athula
  • Bandara, Jayatilleke S.
  • Sarker, Tapan

Abstract

The impact of climate change on agriculture has been one of the most discussed topics in the literature on climate change. Multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have frequently been used to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, these studies do not focus on country-specific issues related to the link between climate change and agriculture. This paper aims to address this gap by investigating the economy-wide impacts of climate change on Nepalese agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it has one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies in South Asia. This paper develops a comparative static multi-household CGE model to trace the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in Nepal. The results suggest that climate change has a significant negative impact on the overall Nepalese economy due to the induced loss of agricultural productivity. The results further reveal that rural households in Nepal, whose livelihoods primarily depend on subsistence farming, will face additional climate change–induced stresses due to already overstrained poverty and a weak social welfare system. The results indicate an urgent need to mainstream adaptation strategies to lessen the negative impacts of any climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal.

Suggested Citation

  • Chalise, Sudarshan & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Sarker, Tapan, 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:43-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.01.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316305004
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.01.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2011. "Climate sensitivity of Indian agriculture: do spatial effects matter?," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 4(2), pages 221-235.
    2. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    3. Pokhrel, Deepak M. & Thapa, Gopal B., 2007. "Are marketing intermediaries exploiting mountain farmers in Nepal? A study based on market price, marketing margin and income distribution analyses," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-164, May.
    4. Christoph Müller & Richard D. Robertson, 2014. "Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 37-50, January.
    5. Salami, Habibollah & Shahnooshi, Naser & Thomson, Kenneth J., 2009. "The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1032-1039, February.
    6. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    8. Scrieciu, S. Serban, 2007. "The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Bohringer and Loschel (2006)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 678-684, February.
    9. Alan Ahearne & William R. Cline & Kyung Tae Lee & Yung Chul Park & Jean Pisani-Ferry & John Williamson, 2007. "Global Imbalances: Time for Action," Policy Briefs PB07-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. World Bank, 2005. "Nepal : Development Policy Review, Restarting Growth and Poverty Reduction," World Bank Publications - Reports 8530, The World Bank Group.
    12. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
    13. Bai, Jushan & Kao, Chihwa & Ng, Serena, 2009. "Panel cointegration with global stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 82-99, April.
    14. Thapa, Sridhar & Joshi, Ganesh Raj, 2010. "A Ricardian analysis of the climate change impact on Nepalese agriculture," MPRA Paper 29785, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2011.
    15. Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 2011. "Trade and poverty nexus: A case study of Sri Lanka," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 328-346, March.
    16. Maximilian Auffhammer & V. Ramanathan & Jeffrey Vincent, 2012. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 411-424, March.
    17. ., 2007. "Population, Migration, and Globalization," Chapters, in: Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development, Selected Essays of Herman Daly, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Bartlett, R. & Bharati, Luna & Pant, Dhruba & Hosterman, H. & McCornick, P. G., 2010. "Climate change impacts and adaptation in Nepal," IWMI Working Papers H043439, International Water Management Institute.
    19. N/A, 2007. "Book Review: Global Warming – Myth or Reality?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 18(3), pages 513-516, July.
    20. Santosh Poudel & Koji Kotani, 2013. "Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 327-355, January.
    21. Gerald C. Nelson & Gerald E. Shively, 2014. "Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 1-2, January.
    22. Sudarshan Chalise & Dr Athula Naranpanawa, 2016. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A general equilibrium analysis of land re-allocation in Nepal," EcoMod2016 9272, EcoMod.
    23. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, October.
    24. J. Mark Horridge & Brian R. Parmenter & Martin Cameron & Riaan Joubert & Areef Suleman & Dawie de Jongh, 1995. "The Macroeconomic, Industrial, Distributional and Regional Effects of Government Spending Programs in South Africa," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-109, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    25. Joseph T.L. Ooi, 2007. "Real Estate Investment Trust: A Global Analysis," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 416-417, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dipesh Chapagain & Sanita Dhaubanjar & Luna Bharati, 2021. "Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Sudarshan Chalise & Athula Naranpanawa, 2023. "Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation in agriculture on poverty: the case of Nepal," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 1540-1559, October.
    3. Guillermo Alexis Vergel-Rangel & Pablo Emilio Escamilla-García & Raúl Horacio Camarillo-López & Jair Azael Esquivel-Guzmán & Francisco Pérez-Soto, 2021. "The environmental impact of nopal (Opuntia ficus-indica) production in Mexico City, Mexico through a life cycle assessment (LCA)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 18068-18095, December.
    4. Femi E. Hounnou & Houinsou Dedehouanou & Afio Zannou & Johanes Agbahey & Gauthier Biaou, 2019. "Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki & Kerstin K. Zander, 2019. "Socio-Economic Impact of and Adaptation to Extreme Heat and Cold of Farmers in the Food Bowl of Nepal," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-24, May.
    6. Md Kamrul Hasan & Lalit Kumar, 2020. "Perceived farm-level climatic impacts on coastal agricultural productivity in Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 617-636, August.
    7. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    8. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki & Douglas Paton & Jonatan A. Lassa & Gopal Datt Bhatta & Kerstin K. Zander, 2020. "Heat, cold, and floods: exploring farmers’ motivations to adapt to extreme weather events in the Terai region of Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3213-3237, September.
    9. Ria Jhoanna C. Ducusin & Maria Victoria O. Espaldon & Carmelita M. Rebancos & Lucille Elna P. Guzman, 2019. "Vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS) in the Philippines: the case of Batad Rice Terraces, Banaue, Ifugao, Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 395-421, April.
    10. Huey-Lin Lee & Yu-Pin Lin & Joy R. Petway, 2018. "Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Sabina Regmi & Kushal Naharki, 2020. "A Swot Analysis Of Agribusiness Entrepreneurship In Nepal," Food & Agribusiness Management (FABM), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 83-88, June.
    12. Mohammad Rondhi & Ahmad Fatikhul Khasan & Yasuhiro Mori & Takumi Kondo, 2019. "Assessing the Role of the Perceived Impact of Climate Change on National Adaptation Policy: The Case of Rice Farming in Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Sudeshna Paul & Athula Naranpanawa & Jay Bandaralage & Tapan Sarker, 2018. "Climate change, crop productivity and regional growth disparity in Bangladesh: What does a district-level regional CGE model tell us?," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201803, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    14. Abeysekara, Walimuni Chamindri Sewanka Mendis & Siriwardana, Mahinda & Meng, Samuel, 2023. "Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 435-450.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sudarshan Chalise & Dr Athula Naranpanawa, 2016. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A general equilibrium analysis of land re-allocation in Nepal," EcoMod2016 9272, EcoMod.
    2. Sudarshan Chalise & Athula Naranpanawa, 2023. "Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation in agriculture on poverty: the case of Nepal," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 1540-1559, October.
    3. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    4. Abeysekara, Walimuni Chamindri Sewanka Mendis & Siriwardana, Mahinda & Meng, Samuel, 2023. "Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 435-450.
    5. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    6. RESTU ANANDA, RIMA & Widodo, Tri, 2019. "A General Assessment of Climate Change - Loss of Agricultural Productivity in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 91316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ada Ignaciuk & Daniel Mason-D'Croz, 2014. "Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 70, OECD Publishing.
    8. Eshita Gupta & Bharat Ramaswami & E. Somanathan, 2021. "The Distributional Impact of Climate Change: Why Food Prices Matter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 249-275, July.
    9. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2011. "Services Liberalization in Preferential Trade Arrangements: The Case of Kenya," Conference papers 332152, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Randell, Heather & Jiang, Chengsheng & Liang, Xin-Zhong & Murtugudde, Raghu & Sapkota, Amir, 2021. "Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. T. S. Amjath-Babu & Pramod K. Aggarwal & Sonja Vermeulen, 2019. "Climate action for food security in South Asia? Analyzing the role of agriculture in nationally determined contributions to the Paris agreement," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 283-298, March.
    12. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    13. John Murray McIntire, 2014. "Transforming African Agriculture," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(2), pages 145-179, May.
    14. Bista, Raghu, 2019. "Trend and Forecasting Analysis on Climate Variability: A case of Nepal," MPRA Paper 98788, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Apr 2019.
    15. Sands, Ronald & Jones, Carol & Marshall, Elizabeth P., 2014. "Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply," Economic Research Report 186137, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    16. Zimmermann, Andrea & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Ewert, Frank & Kros, Johannes & Wolf, Joost & Britz, Wolfgang & de Vries, Wim, 2017. "Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 81-92.
    17. Santiago Guerrero & Ben Henderson & Hugo Valin & Charlotte Janssens & Petr Havlik & Amanda Palazzo, 2022. "The impacts of agricultural trade and support policy reform on climate change adaptation and environmental performance: A model-based analysis," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 180, OECD Publishing.
    18. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    19. Paglialunga, Elena & Coveri, Andrea & Zanfei, Antonello, 2022. "Climate change and within-country inequality: New evidence from a global perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:43-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.