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The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030

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  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Burke, Marshall
  • Lobell, David

Abstract

Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10-60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20-50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by equal amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields - or highly aggregated poverty impacts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Working Papers with number 3196.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:3196

Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 59
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Cited by:
  1. Nicola Ranger & Swenja Surminski, 2011. "A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment 63, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  2. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank 301, Asian Development Bank.
  3. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier.
  4. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
  5. Chonabayashi, Shun, 2013. "Climate Shocks and African Maize Prices," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C., Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 151135, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  6. Briones, Roehlano & Felipe, Jesus, 2013. "Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Developing Asia: Review and Outlook," ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank 363, Asian Development Bank.
  7. Nelson, Gerald C. & Palazzo, Amanda & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard & Thomas, Timothy S., 2013. "Methodology," IFPRI book chapters, in: Hachigonta, Sepo & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Sibanda, Lindiwe Majele (ed.), Southern African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 2, pages 25-40 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Nelson, Gerald C. & Palazzo, Amanda & Mason-DCroz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Thomas, Timothy S., 2013. "Methodology," IFPRI book chapters, in: Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmore, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold (ed.), West African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 2, pages 37-52 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Antonio Turrent Fernández & Timothy A. Wise & Elise Garvey, 2012. "Achieving Mexico’s Maize Potential," GDAE Working Papers, GDAE, Tufts University 12-03, GDAE, Tufts University.
  9. Aoyagi, Midori & Suda, Eiko & Shinada, Tomomi, 2011. "Gender Inclusion in Climate Change Adaptation," ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute 309, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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