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Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies

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Author Info
Martínez, Juan
Santiso, Javier

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Abstract

This article focuses on the interactions between politics and financial markets in emerging economies. More precisely, it examines how Wall Street reacts to major Latin American political events. The case study focuses on the 2002 Brazilian presidential elections. The first section of the article provides a critical review of the available literature. The second section presents an empirical study of Wall Street analysts’ perceptions of the 2002 presidential elections in Brazil, based on reports produced by leading Wall Street investment firms. The final section uses polling and financial data from previous Brazilian elections to place the events of 2002 in comparative historical perspective.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12909.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12909

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Related research
Keywords: Emerging economies; Financial markets; International political economy; Latin America;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Block, Steven A. & Vaaler, Paul M., 2004. "The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 917-946, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Quan Le & Paul J. Zak, 2001. "Political Risk and Capital Flight," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-10, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  3. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Do Political Institutions Shape Economic Policy?," NBER Working Papers 8214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Antu Panini Murshid, 2002. "Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Reisen, Helmut, 2002. "Ratings since the Asian Crisis," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Gaston R. Gelos & Shang-Jin Wei, 2002. "Transparency and International Investor Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/174, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. David Stasavage, 2002. "Private Investment and Political Institutions," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 41-63. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Philippe Martin & Helene Rey, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," NBER Working Papers 9288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Leblang, David & Bernhard, William, 2000. "The Politics of Speculative Attacks in Industrial Democracies," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(02), pages 291-324, April. [Downloadable!]
  14. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. MacIntyre, Andrew, 2001. "Institutions and Investors: The Politics of the Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(01), pages 81-122, February. [Downloadable!]
  16. Witold Jerzy Henisz, 2004. "Political Institutions and Policy Volatility," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Roberto Chang, 2002. "Financial Crises and Political Crises," Departmental Working Papers 200229, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Andrew MacIntyre, 2001. "Institutions and Investors: The Politics of the Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia," International Organization, MIT Press, vol. 55(1), pages 81-122, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Leblang, David & Bernhard, William, 2000. "The Politics of Speculative Attacks in Industrial Democracies," International Organization, MIT Press, vol. 54(2), pages 291-324, Spring.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anja Linder & Carlos Santiso, 2003. "Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 29, pages 105-132. [Downloadable!]
  2. Steven A. Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "DEMOCRACY’S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-575, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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