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Ratings since the Asian Crisis

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  • Reisen, Helmut

Abstract

The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers — and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and whether rating agencies have modified the determinants for their rating decisions. It also provides an analysis on recent suggestions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as these are very important for gauging the future role of sovereign ratings for foreign debt finance in developing countries. While the explanatory power of conventional rating determinants has declined since the Asian crisis, recent rating performance for Argentina and Turkey can still be qualified as lagging the markets, as variables of financial-sector strength and the endogenous effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables seem to remain underemphasised in rating assessments. The market impact of sovereign ... L’importance accrue des agences de notation pour les marchés financiers des pays émergents a attiré l’attention d’un groupe élargi d’observateurs — et suscité des critiques. Ce document cherche à déterminer si l’influence des notations pour les capitaux des pays en développement a évolué depuis la crise asiatique et si les agences ont ou non modifié leurs critères de notation. Ce texte propose aussi une analyse des dernières propositions du Comité de Bâle sur le contrôle bancaire, déterminantes pour apprécier le rôle futur des notations du risque pays dans le financement des pays en développement par la dette extérieure. Alors que les critères classiques de notation ont perdu de leur pouvoir explicatif depuis la crise asiatique, les dernières notations de l’Argentine et de la Turquie semblent encore suivre l’évolution des marchés, dans la mesure où les variables du dynamisme du secteur financier et les effets endogènes des flux de capitaux sur

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper DP2002/02.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2002-02

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Keywords: Asia; Financial crisis;

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References

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  1. Helmut Reisen, 1999. "After the Great Asian Slump: Towards a Coherent Approach to Global Capital Flows," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 16, OECD Publishing.
  2. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2678, The World Bank.
  4. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April.
  5. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
  6. Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 148, OECD Publishing.
  7. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
  8. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Domestic Causes of Currency Crises: Policy Lessons for Crisis Avoidance," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
  9. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, 2008. "From Financieristic To Real Macroeconomics: Seeking Development Convergence In Ees," Working Papers wp272, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  3. Marcus Noland, 2005. "Popular Attitudes, Globalization and Risk," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 199-229, 08.
  4. Ocampo, Jose Antonio, 2002. "Capital-Account and Counter-Cyclical Prudential Regulations in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. José Antonio Ocampo, 2007. "The Instability and Inequities of the Global Reserve System," Working Papers 59, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  6. Laura E. Kodres & Kristian Hartelius & Kenichiro Kashiwase, 2008. "Emerging Market Spread Compression," IMF Working Papers 08/10, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? T+L3712he Impact of Sovereign Ratingson Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo, 2002. "Financial Crises and National Policy Issues: An Overview," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
  10. Ilene GRABEL, 2004. "Trip Wires And Speed Bumps: Managing Financial Risks And Reducing The Potential For Financial Crises In Developing Economies," G-24 Discussion Papers 33, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  11. Sebastián Nieto Parra & Javier Santiso, 2008. "Wall Street and Elections in Latin American Emerging Economies," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 272, OECD Publishing.
  12. Marwan Elkhoury, 2007. "Credit Rating Agencies And Their Potential Impact On Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 186, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

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