IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/devaaa/136-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Domestic Causes of Currency Crises: Policy Lessons for Crisis Avoidance

Author

Listed:
  • Helmut Reisen

Abstract

The recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia have hit countries with strong macroeconomic fundamentals but weak domestic financial systems. Private capital flows, attracted by disorderly financial liberalisation and exchange rate pegs, reversed abruptly when financial-sector weaknesses became apparent. Often, domestic financial systems have proved too weak a conduit for heavy capital inflows, resulting in declining credit quality and financial vulnerability to speculative currency attacks. Developing countries are therefore advised to pay close attention to indicators of financial vulnerability, in particular to short-term debt levels as a fraction of official foreign exchange reserves, as well as to currency and maturity mismatches in private-sector balance sheets. This paper points to the avenues that can be pursued to avoid a rise in the vulnerability indicators above critical levels ...Some of these avenues are uncontroversial, but deceptively hard to implement. Good ... Les crises monétaires qui ont récemment frappé l’Asie et l’Amérique latine ont atteint des pays dotés de fondements macro-économiques solides, mais de systèmes financiers faibles. Les capitaux privés, attirés par une libéralisation financière sans contrainte et par les différentiels de taux de change, se sont retirés brusquement lorsque les faiblesses du secteur financier sont apparues au grand jour. Bien souvent, les systèmes financiers nationaux n’ont pas pu jouer correctement leur rôle d’intermédiation face à des entrées massives de capitaux. La qualité du crédit s’en est ressentie et les pays se sont trouvés vulnérables aux attaques spéculatives contre leur monnaie. Aussi faut-il conseiller aux pays en développement de surveiller étroitement les indicateurs de vulnérabilité financière, et notamment les niveaux d’endettement à court terme par rapport aux réserves officielles en devises, ainsi que les déséquilibres en devises au passif et à l’actif et les décalages des échéances ...

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Domestic Causes of Currency Crises: Policy Lessons for Crisis Avoidance," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:136-en
    DOI: 10.1787/137464158356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/137464158356
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/137464158356?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 111-131, January.
    2. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 1990. "The Sequencing of Economic Reform: Analytical Issues and Lessons from Latin American Experiences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 7-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ms. Carmen Reinhart & Mr. Mohsin S. Khan, 1995. "Capital Flows in the APEC Region," IMF Occasional Papers 1995/015, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    11. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    16. Helmut Reisen & Axel Trotsenburg, 1988. "Should the Asian NICs peg to the yen?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 23(4), pages 172-177, July.
    17. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Devlin, Robert & Ffrench-Davis, Ricardo & Griffith-Jones, Stephany, 1994. "Surges in capital flows and development: an overview of policy issues," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 33972, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:48:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2000. "Options for the exchange rate policies in the EU accession countries (and other emerging market economies)," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 13, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 125-169, August.
    4. Thierry Mayer, 2006. "Policy Coherence for Development : A Background paper on Foreign Direct Investment," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01065640, HAL.
    5. David T. Llewellyn, 2002. "An analysis of the causes of recent banking crises," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 152-175, June.
    6. Ramkishen Rajan, 1998. "Restraints On Capital Flows : What Are They?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22383, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," Economic Research Papers 269628, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    8. C. Rangarajan & A. Prasad, 2008. "Capital flows, exchange rate management and monetary policy," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 135-149.
    9. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10184 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Steinherr A., 2001. "Financial Crises in 1997 – 2001 Shortcomings of the International Financial Architecture," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 61-72, January -.
    11. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2000. "Monetary policy and exchange rate targeting in open economies," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 14, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    12. Valpy FitzGerald (QEH), "undated". "Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: Sound Principles and Unreliable Evidence," QEH Working Papers qehwps153, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    13. Reisen, Helmut, 2003. "Ratings since the Asian crisis," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1790, September.
    14. Rahul Dhumale, 2000. "Capital Adequacy Standards: Are They Sufficient?," Working Papers wp165, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10184 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Golder, Stefan M., 1999. "Precautionary credit lines: A means to contain contagion in financial markets?," Kiel Discussion Papers 341, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Bengi Kibritcioglu & Bulent Kose & Gamze Ugur, 2001. "A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency," International Finance 0108001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2001.
    19. Nacer Bernou & Marceline Grondin, 2001. "Réconciliation entre libéralisation financière et croissance économique dans un système fondé sur la banque," Post-Print halshs-00179981, HAL.
    20. Lamberte, Mario B., 1999. "Currency Crisis: Where Do We Go From Here?," Discussion Papers DP 1999-10, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    21. Franz R. Hahn, 1998. "Currency Crises. A Challenge for Economic Theory and Policy," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 3(4), pages 183-190, October.
    22. Schnatz, Bernd, 1998. "Macroeconomic determinants of currency turbulences in emerging markets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1998,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2012. "After Ten Years of the Russian Crisis, How Might IMF Intervention Be Evaluated?," Working Paper Series 5112, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10184 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Rahman, Abdurrahman Arum, 2020. "Organic global cryptocurrency:towards a stable international monetary system that is closer to Maqasid Sharıʿah," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 28, pages 63-82.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    2. Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "The Currency and Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia: A Case of 'Sudden Death' or Death Foretold'?," Working Papers id:2583, eSocialSciences.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    5. Delphine Lahet, 2001. "L'occurrence d'une crise financière dans un modèle de troisième génération," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 179-206.
    6. Croitoru, Lucian, 2013. "Liquidity, the October 2008 Speculative Attack and the Central Bank Reputation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-51, June.
    7. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    10. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 321-350, July.
    11. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Wided BEN MOUSSA, 2015. "The Models of Third Generation: Controversies on the Profound Nature of the Asian Crisis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 76-92, December.
    13. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-350, July.
    14. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    15. Janice Boucher Breuer, 2004. "An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 293-320, July.
    16. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    17. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    19. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:136-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dcoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.