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Monetary policy and exchange rate targeting in open economies

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  • Bofinger, Peter
  • Wollmershäuser, Timo

Abstract

We develop an institutional framework for central banks that try to pursue a stability-oriented monetary policy in open-economies by directly targeting the exchange rate. Our main intention is to design a framework which avoids excessive capital inflows that can be regarded as a main cause of the crises in Asia, Latin America, Eastern and Central Europe and of the ERM I. In an open economy policy makers can target two interrelated variables: the interest rate and the exchange rate. These two operating target have to fulfil two different conditions. On the one hand they have to create monetary conditions that are consistent with the domestic economic situation. On the other hand they have to be compatible with a risk-premium adjusted uncovered interest parity condition (UIP). It is obvious that both conditions are difficult to met. In our view sustained violations of the second condition provide an important explanation for the problem of speculative capital inflows under a fixed nominal peg. We show that an adjustable nominal peg is in most cases a better solution to the dual requirement of UIP and adequate monetary conditions. This leads to a new solution for the inconsistency triangle: a central bank can combine an autonomous domestic interest rate policy with capital mobility and a floor for the target path of the exchange rate. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 14.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:14

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Related research

Keywords: emerging market economies; exchange rate targeting; open-economy Taylor rule; UIP; risk premium; monetary conditions index; sterilised intervention; inconsistency triangle;

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References

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  1. Bofinger, Peter, 1996. "The economics of orthodox money-based stabilisations (OMBS): The recent experience of Kazakhstan, Russia and the Ukraine," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 663-671, April.
  2. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Domestic Causes of Currency Crises: Policy Lessons for Crisis Avoidance," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
  3. Takatoshi Ito & Kathryn M. Dominguez & Moeen Qureshi & Zhang Shengman & Masaru Yoshitomi, 1999. "Capital Flows to East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 111-190 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I," NBER Working Papers 6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Takatoshi Ito, 1999. "Capital Flows in Asia," Discussion Paper Series a371, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Hans Christiansen, 1999. "The Recent Experience with Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 211, OECD Publishing.
  7. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  8. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  9. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fabrizio Iacone & Renzo Orsi, 2002. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting in the CEE Accession Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp08, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
  2. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
  3. R. Golinelli & R. Rovelli, 2001. "Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries," Working Papers 429, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

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