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The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic

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Author Info

  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? Second, what can explain the difference relative to previous recessions, where we witnessed far weaker co-movement? To address these questions, we develop a two-country model that allows for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized across countries as long as there is a minimum level of economic integration. Moreover, we show that several factors generated particular vulnerability to such a global panic in 2008: tight credit, the zero lower bound, unresponsive fiscal policy and increased economic integration.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 13.05.

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Length: 45 pp. + figures (total 60 pp.)
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:13.05

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.05
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
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Keywords: Great Recession; international co-movements; contagion;

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References

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  1. Robert KOLLMANN, 2011. "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 20, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Fabrizio Perri & Jonathan Heathcote, 2011. "Wealth and Volatility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1065, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," CAMA Working Papers 2013-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew C. Weinzierl, 2011. "An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 17029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 1999. "A Simple Model of Monetary Pollicy and Currency Crises," Working Papers 99.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  6. Thomas Helbling & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Martin Bodenstein, 2009. "Trade Elasticity of Substitution and Equilibrium Dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 766, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 18413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," NBER Working Papers 18420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2011. "Which financial frictions? Parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007-09," Staff Reports 528, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Kamin, Steven B. & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder, 2012. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 10-41.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Why did the panic of 2008 spread abroad?
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-12-09 15:31:00

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