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Sentiments and aggregate demand fluctuations

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  • Jess Benhabib
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

We formalize the Keynesian insight that aggregate demand driven by sentiments can generate output fluctuations under rational expectations. When production decisions must be made un- der imperfect information about aggregate demand, optimal decisions based on sentiments can generate stochastic self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in standard economies without aggregate shocks, externalities, persistent informational frictions, or even any strategic comple- mentarity. Our general equilibrium model is deliberately simple, but could serve as a benchmark for more complicated equilibrium models with additional features.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2012-039.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-039

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Keywords: Keynesian economics ; Equilibrium (Economics);

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  1. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 14255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Iván Werning & George-Marios Angeletos, 2006. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity, and Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1720-1736, December.
  4. Christian Hellwig & Arijit Mukherji & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2005. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps," Discussion Papers 1400, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  6. Stein, Noah D. & Parrilo, Pablo A. & Ozdaglar, Asuman, 2011. "Correlated equilibria in continuous games: Characterization and computation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 436-455, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Farmer, Roger E A & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," CEPR Discussion Papers 9283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," NBER Working Papers 19062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2013. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Working Papers 1461, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  4. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2013. "Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 18878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2012. "The Evolution of Endogenous Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang, 2014. "Private Information and Sunspots in Sequential Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 20044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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