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Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations

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  • Jess Benhabib
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

We formalize the Keynesian insight that aggregate demand driven by sentiments can generate output fluctuations under rational expectations. When production decisions must be made under imperfect information about aggregate demand, optimal decisions based on sentiments can generate stochastic self-fulfillng rational expectations equilibria in standard economies without aggregate shocks, externalities, persistent informational frictions, or even any strategic complementarity. Our general equilibrium model is deliberately simple, but could serve as a benchmark for more complicated equilibrium models with additional features.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18413.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18413

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  1. George-Marios Angeletos & Ivan Werning, 2004. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Manuel Amador & Pierre Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," 2008 Meeting Papers 390, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2005. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps," Discussion Papers 1400, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Christian Hellwig & Arijit Mukherji & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stein, Noah D. & Parrilo, Pablo A. & Ozdaglar, Asuman, 2011. "Correlated equilibria in continuous games: Characterization and computation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 436-455, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," NBER Working Papers 19062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2013. "Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 18878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2012. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-048, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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