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Job Stability Trends, Layoffs, and Transitions to Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis for West Germany

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Author Info
Bergemann, Annette () (Free University of Amsterdam, Tinbergen Institute, University of Mannheim and IZA Bonn)
Mertens, Antje (Max Planck Institute for Human Development)

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Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we first show that the median elapsed tenure declined for men between 1984 and 1999. Second, estimating proportional Cox hazard models with competing risks and controls for stock sampling, we are able to distinguish the reasons for job separation and different transition states. We show that the decline in the stability of men’s jobs can be attributed partly to an increase in layoffs and partly to an increase in transitions to unemployment. However, these two developments are not significantly related to each other. Some evidence is presented that downsizing of large firms might be responsible for part of the decline in job stability.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1368.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1368

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Related research
Keywords: job stability; labor mobility; layoffs; duration analysis;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "Is Job Stability Declining in Germany? Evidences from Count Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 01, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel & Hansen, Daniel, 1999. "Has Job Stability Declined Yet? New Evidence for the 1990s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages S29-64, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Burgess, Simon & Rees, Hedley, 1997. "Transient Jobs and Lifetime Jobs: Dualism in the British Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 309-28, August.
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    Other versions:
  5. Parsons, Donald O., 1987. "The employment relationship: Job attachment, work effort, and the nature of contracts," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 789-848 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Burgess, Simon & Rees, Hedley, 1997. "A Disaggregate Analysis of the Evolution of Job Tenure in Britain, 1975-93," CEPR Discussion Papers 1711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Robert E. Hall & Edward P. Lazear, 1984. "The Excess Sensitivity of Layoffs and Quits to Demand," NBER Working Papers 0864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hall, Robert E & Lazear, Edward P, 1984. "The Excess Sensitivity of Layoffs and Quits to Demand," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(2), pages 233-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  16. Kenneth A. Swinnerton & Howard Wial, 1995. "Is job stability declining in the U.S. economy?," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 48(2), pages 293-304, January.
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    Other versions:
  19. McLaughlin, Kenneth J, 1991. "A Theory of Quits and Layoffs with Efficient Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 1-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Jaeger, David A & Stevens, Ann Huff, 1999. "Is Job Stability in the United States Falling? Reconciling Trends in the Current Population Survey and Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages S1-28, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1987. "What Do We Know About Worker Displacement in the U.S.?," NBER Working Papers 2402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Gregg, Paul & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1995. "A Short History of Labour Turnover, Job Tenure, and Job Security, 1975-93," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 73-90, Spring.
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  25. Daron Acemoglu & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 1998. "Why Do Firms Train? Theory And Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 78-118, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Diebold, Francis X & Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel, 1997. "Job Stability in the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 206-33, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Firm-specific Capital and Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1246-60, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Givord, Pauline & Maurin, Eric, 2003. "Changes in Job Security and their Causes: An Empirical Analysis for France, 1982-2002," CEPR Discussion Papers 3830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Spence, A Michael, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 355-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Bruce C. Fallick, 1995. "A review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Haile, Getinet Astatike, 2009. "The Nature and Extent of Job Separations in Germany: Some New Evidence from SOEP," IZA Discussion Papers 4216, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Boris Hirsch & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2008. "Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer-Employee Data from Germany," Working Papers 1111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christian Pfeifer, 2007. "The Perceived Fairness of Layoffs in Germany: Participation, Compensation, or Avoidance?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 25-36, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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