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Is Job Stability in the United States Falling?

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Author Info
Jaeger, David A. () (Department of Economics, Hunter College/Cuny Grad School)
Stevens, Ann Huff

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Abstract

Documenting trends in job stability over the past twenty-five years has become a controversial exercise. The two main sources of information on employer tenure, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Current Population Survey (CPS), have generally given different pictures of the degree of job stability in the U.S. economy. This paper examines whether the PSID and CPS yield systematically different results with respect to comparable measures of job stability. Both data sets show an increase in the fraction of male workers aged 30 and over with tenure less than ten years beginning in the late 1980s. There is little evidence in either data set of a trend in the share of employed individuals with one year or less of tenure. The two data sets provide nearly identical results for the 1980s and 90s while in the 1970s they give results that are somewhat less comparable. We argue that this is probably the result of changes in the CPS tenure question following the 1981 survey. The effects of this change and the choice of ending year and variable definition in PSID-based studies are the most likely explanations for the disparate findings in the literature.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 35.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp35

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Related research
Keywords: job stability; U.S.economy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy Over the Past Fifty Years," NBER Working Papers 11678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Leonardi, Marco, 2003. "Earnings Instability of Job Stayers and Job Changers," IZA Discussion Papers 946, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Flabbi, Luca & Leonardi, Marco, 2008. "Sources of Earnings Instability: Estimates from an On-the-Job Search Model of the U.S. Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 3387, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Henry S. Farber, 1997. "The Changing Face of Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1995," Working Papers 761, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  5. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Harvey S. Rosen & Robert Weathers, 2000. "Horatio Alger Meets the Mobility Tables," NBER Working Papers 7619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. H. J. Holzer & R. J. LaLonde, . "Job Change and Job Stability among Less-Skilled Young Workers," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1191-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Alicia H. Munnell & Steven Sass & Mauricio Soto & Natalia Zhivan, 2006. "Has the Displacement of Older Workers Increased?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-17, Center for Retirement Research, revised Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1998. "The decline of job security in the 1990s: displacement, anxiety, and their effect on wage growth," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 17-43. [Downloadable!]
  9. John M. Fitzgerald, 1999. "Job Instability and Earnings and Income Consequences: Evidence from SIPP: 1983-1995," JCPR Working Papers 99, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  10. Ann Huff Stevens, 2005. "The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002," NBER Working Papers 11878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Henry S. Farber, 1997. "Trends in Long Term Employment in the United States, 1979-96," Working Papers 763, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alicia H. Munnell & Kelly Haverstick & Geoffrey Sanzenbacher, 2006. "Job Tenure and Pension Coverage," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  13. A. Mertens, . "Job Stability Trends and Labor Market (Re-) Entry in West Germany 1984-1997," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-60, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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