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Changes in job stability - evidence from lifetime job histories

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  • Miikka Rokkanen
  • Roope Uusitalo

Abstract

We use lifetime job histories from the pension records to evaluate changes in job stability in Finland between 1963 and 2004. We specify a duration model and estimate the effects of elapsed duration, age, and calendar time on the hazard of job ending using individual-level panel data spanning over four decades. We find that this hazard increased during the recession years in the early 1990s but has now returned to the level that prevailed in the 1970s. We also demonstrate that the fluctuations in the hazard rate together with the changes in labor market entry rates have complicated dynamic effects on the tenure distribution, and that analysing the changes in job stability based on the elapsed duration of ongoing jobs may be quite misleading.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT) in its series Working Papers with number 14.

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Date of creation: 18 Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fer:wpaper:14

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Keywords: Job stability; duration models;

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References

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & David Neumark & Daniel Polsky, 1994. "Job Stability in the United States," NBER Working Papers 4859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Burgess, Simon & Rees, Hedley, 1996. "Job Tenure in Britain 1975-92," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 334-44, March.
  3. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "Is Job Stability Declining in Germany? Evidences from Count Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Bergemann, Annette & Mertens, Antje, 2004. "Job Stability Trends, Layoffs, and Transitions to Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis for West Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1368, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Daniel Polsky, 1999. "Changing consequences of job separation in the United States," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 52(4), pages 565-580, July.
  6. Gregg, Paul & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 2002. " Job Tenure in Britain, 1975-2000: Is a Job for Life or Just for Christmas?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 111-34, May.
  7. repec:fth:prinin:384 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Henry S. Farber, 1995. "Are Lifetime Jobs Disappearing? Job Duration in the United States: 1973-1993," NBER Working Papers 5014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bratberg, Espen & Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar & Vaage, Kjell, 2006. "Has Job Stability Decreased in Norway?," Working Papers in Economics 11/06, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
  10. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  11. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Carlos Garcia-Serrano, 1999. "Job tenure and job mobility in Britain," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(1), pages 43-70, October.
  12. Cynthia Bansak & Steven Raphael, 2006. "Have Employment Relationships in the United States Become Less Stable?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 342-357, August.
  13. Kenneth A. Swinnerton & Howard Wial, 1995. "Is job stability declining in the U.S. economy?," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 48(2), pages 293-304, January.
  14. Gregg, Paul & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1995. "A Short History of Labour Turnover, Job Tenure, and Job Security, 1975-93," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 73-90, Spring.
  15. Brown, James N & Light, Audrey, 1992. "Interpreting Panel Data on Job Tenure," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 219-57, July.
  16. Jaeger, David A & Stevens, Ann Huff, 1999. "Is Job Stability in the United States Falling? Reconciling Trends in the Current Population Survey and Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages S1-28, October.
  17. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
  18. Burgess, Simon & Rees, Hedley, 1997. "Transient Jobs and Lifetime Jobs: Dualism in the British Labour Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 309-28, August.
  19. Ann Huff Stevens, 2005. "The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same: Trends in Long-term Employment in the United States, 1969-2002," NBER Working Papers 11878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Ossi Korkeamäki & Tomi Kyyrä, 2010. "Institutional rules, labour demand and retirement through disability programme participation," Working Papers 16, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  2. Essi Eerola & Teemu Lyytikäinen, 2012. "On the role of public price information in housing markets," Working Papers 30, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).

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