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Job Stability Trends, Layoffs and Quits - An Empirical Analysis for West Germany

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  • Annette Bergemann

    ()
    (University of Mannheim)

  • Antje Mertens

    ()
    (Max Planck Institute)

Abstract

This paper studies signs and reasons of decline of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the longitudinal German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-1997 (about to be extended until 1999), we look at two measures for job stability. Based on repeated cross sectional data we first show that medium elapsed tenure declined for men. Secondly, we find that the measure of completed job duration can efficiently be used, to distinguish reasons for job termination and to surpass the problem of right censoring. Estimating the popular proportional Cox hazard model with competing risks, we show that the decline in stability of jobs of men beginning after 1984 can be attributed primarily to an increase in layoffs. We will extend the analysis by taking unobserved heterogeneity into account, exploiting the presence of multiple spells in the data.. Furthermore, we will include jobs which started before 1985 into the multivariate analysis by using a stock sampling approach.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Conferences on Panel Data in its series 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 with number C1-4.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:c1-4

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Keywords: Job stability; labor mobility; layoffs; duration analysis;

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  1. Axel Borsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 135-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "Is Job Stability Declining in Germany? Evidences from Count Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Hilmar Schneider & Anette Bergemann, 1998. "Ist der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt beweglicher geworden? - Eine Analyse anhand der Unternehmenszugehörigkeitsdauer in Westdeutschland," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 4(11), pages 15-21.
  4. Hashimoto, Masanori, 1981. "Firm-Specific Human Capital as a Shared Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 475-82, June.
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  6. Edward E. Leamer, 1996. "In Search of Stolper-Samuelson Effects on U.S. Wages," NBER Working Papers 5427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jan Ondrich & C. Spiess & Qing Yang & Gert Wagner, 2003. "The Liberalization of Maternity Leave Policy and the Return to Work after Childbirth in Germany," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 77-110, January.
  8. Parsons, Donald O, 1972. "Specific Human Capital: An Application to Quit Rates and Layoff Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(6), pages 1120-43, Nov.-Dec..
  9. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  10. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-62, December.
  11. Diebold, Francis X & Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel, 1997. "Job Stability in the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 206-33, April.
  12. Kenneth A. Swinnerton & Howard Wial, 1995. "Is job stability declining in the U.S. economy?," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 48(2), pages 293-304, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Givord, Pauline & Maurin, Eric, 2004. "Changes in job security and their causes: An empirical analysis for France, 1982-2002," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 595-615, June.
  2. Boockmann, Bernhard & Hagen, Tobias, 2005. "Fixed-term Contracts as Sorting Mechanisms: Evidence From Job Durations in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-85, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Fred Robert-Nicoud (University of Geneva) & Niko Matouschek & Paolo Ramezzana (University of Virginia), 2004. "Labor Market Frictions, Job Insecurity and the Flexibility of the Employment Relationship," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 52, Econometric Society.
  4. Junichi Fujimoto, 2008. "Implications of General and Specific Productivity Growth in a Matching Model," 2008 Meeting Papers 584, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Niko Matouschek & Paolo Ramezzana, 2004. "Labor Market Frictions, Job Insecurity, and the Flexibility of the Employment Relationship," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 28, Econometric Society.
  6. Boockmann, Bernhard & Steffes, Susanne, 2005. "Individual and Plant-level Determinants of Job Durations in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-89, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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