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Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy

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  • Jian Wang

Abstract

This paper examines how much the central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to real exchange rate fluctuations. The paper first demonstrates in a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, that the home bias in consumption is important to duplicate the exchange rate volatility and exchange rate disconnect documented in the data. When home bias is high, the shock to Uncovered Interest-rate Parity (UIP) can substantially drive up exchange rate volatility while leaving the volatility of real macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, almost untouched. The model predicts the volatility of the real exchange rate relative to that of GDP increases with the extent of home bias. This relation is strongly supported by the data. Then a second-order accurate solution method is employed to solve the model and compare the conditional welfare under different policy regimes. The results suggest that the monetary authority should not seek to vigorously stabilize exchange rate fluctuations. In particular, when the central bank does not take a strong stance against the inflation rate, exchange rate stabilization may induce substantial welfare loss. The model also suggests no welfare gain from the international monetary cooperation, which extends Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2002) findings to a DSGE model.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0701.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0701

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Cited by:
  1. Jian Wang & Charles Engel, 2008. "International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities," 2008 Meeting Papers 210, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Simon Wren-Lewis & Campbell Leith, 2007. "The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Exchange Rate Misalignments," Economics Series Working Papers 305, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Charles Engel, 2011. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2796-2822, October.
  4. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2007. "International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Juha Tervala, 2011. "International Welfare Effects of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 66, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  6. Teresa Sousa, 2011. "International macroeconomic interdependence and imports of oil in a small open economy," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 35-60, April.
  7. Stephen McKnight, 2007. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy in the Open Economy," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2007-51, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  8. Xu, Juanyi, 2010. "Noise traders, exchange rate disconnect puzzle, and the Tobin tax," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 336-357, March.
  9. Charles Engel, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 19336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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