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Consumption Growth, Household Splits and Civil War

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  • Philip Verwimp
  • Tom Bundervoet

Abstract

We analyse the effect of civil war on household welfare. Using Burundian panel data for the 1998-2007 period in which we re-interviewed original as well as newly formed households (split-offs), we show that headcount poverty decreased by 3.5 % points when split-off households are taken into account and 1% when splits are left out. Poverty is persistent while prosperity is not, in particular in war-affected areas. We find that 25 war-related deaths or wounded at the village level reduce consumption growth by 13%. We also find that violence afflicted on household members decreases growth whereas membership of rebel groups increases it. Apart from such war-related effects - and controlling for initial levels of consumption - we find that temporarily famine-induced migration and illness decrease growth while good harvests, more split-offs and higher initial levels of education increase it. Good harvests are found to have persistent positive effects on growth. Our results are robust for different household and province fixed effects specifications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number 2008_023.

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Length: 38 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_023

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Keywords: consumption; growth; split-off households; civil war; panel data; Africa;

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References

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  1. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
  2. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 2002. "Household Division and Rural Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 839-69, October.
  3. Stefan Dercon, 2004. "Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Development and Comp Systems 0409036, EconWPA.
  4. Harold Alderman & Jere R. Behrman & Victor Lavy & Rekha Menon, 2001. "Child Health and School Enrollment: A Longitudinal Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 185-205.
  5. Bundervoet, Tom & Verwimp, Philip & Akresh, Richard, 2007. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," IZA Discussion Papers 2951, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Hoddinott, John & Kinsey, Bill, 2001. " Child Growth in the Time of Drought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 409-36, September.
  7. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
  8. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 25-53.
  9. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
  10. Deininger, Klaus, 2003. "Causes and consequences of civil strife - micro-level evidence from Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3045, The World Bank.
  11. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
  12. Baird, Sarah & Hamory, Joan & Miguel, Edward, 2008. "Tracking, Attrition and Data Quality in the Kenyan Life Panel Survey Round 1 (KLPS-1)," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3cw7p1hx, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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Cited by:
  1. Catherine Rodríguez & Fabio Sánchez T., 2009. "Armed Conflict Exposure, Human Capital Investments and Child Labor: Evidence from Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 005400, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  2. Justino, Patricia & Leone, Marinella & Salardi, Paola, 2011. "Education and conflict recovery : the case of Timor Leste," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5774, The World Bank.
  3. Camacho, Andriana & Rodriguez, Catherine, 2010. "Firm Exit and Armed Conflict in Colombia," Working Papers wp2010-94, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Nillesen, Eleonora & Verwim, Philip, 2010. "A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi," Working Papers wp2010-44, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Maarten J. Voors & Erwin H. Bulte, 2008. "Unbundling Institutions at the Local Level: Conflict, Institutions and Income in Burundi," HiCN Working Papers 49, Households in Conflict Network.

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