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Consumption Growth, Household Splits and Civil War

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  • Philip Verwimp

    ()
    (Fund for Scientific Research (FWO), University of Antwerp)

  • Tom Bundervoet

    ()
    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

Abstract

We analyse the effect of civil war on household welfare. Using Burundian panel data for the 1998-2007 period in which we re-interviewed original as well as newly formed households (split-offs), we show that headcount poverty decreased by 3.5 % points when split-off households are taken into account and 1% when splits are left out. Poverty is persistent while prosperity is not, in particular in war-affected areas. We find that 25 war-related deaths or wounded at the village level reduce consumption growth by 13%. We also find that violence afflicted on household members decreases growth whereas membership of rebel groups increases it. Apart from such war-related effects - and controlling for initial levels of consumption - we find that temporarily famine-induced migration and illness decrease growth while good harvests, more split-offs and higher initial levels of education increase it. Good harvests are found to have persistent positive effects on growth. Our results are robust for different household and province fixed effects specifications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict in its series Research Working Papers with number 9.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:9

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Keywords: Consumption; Growth; Split-off households; Civil war; Panel data; Africa;

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References

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  1. Tom Bundervoet & Philip Verwimp & Richard Akresh, 2008. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," Research Working Papers 5, MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict.
  2. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 25-53.
  3. Stefan Dercon, 2003. "Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
  5. Hoddinott, John & Kinsey, Bill, 2001. " Child Growth in the Time of Drought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 409-36, September.
  6. Harold Alderman & Jere R. Behrman & Victor Lavy & Rekha Menon, 2001. "Child Health and School Enrollment: A Longitudinal Analysis," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 185-205.
  7. Deininger, Klaus, 2003. "Causes and consequences of civil strife - micro-level evidence from Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3045, The World Bank.
  8. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
  9. Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Binswanger, Hans P., 1989. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Bulletins 7455, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
  10. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 2002. "Household Division and Rural Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 839-69, October.
  11. Baird, Sarah & Hamory, Joan & Miguel, Edward, 2008. "Tracking, Attrition and Data Quality in the Kenyan Life Panel Survey Round 1 (KLPS-1)," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3cw7p1hx, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  12. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Camacho, Andriana & Rodriguez, Catherine, 2010. "Firm Exit and Armed Conflict in Colombia," Working Paper Series wp2010-94, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Maarten J. Voors & Erwin H. Bulte, 2008. "Unbundling Institutions at the Local Level: Conflict, Institutions and Income in Burundi," HiCN Working Papers 49, Households in Conflict Network.
  3. Catherine Rodriguez & Fabio Sanchez, 2009. "Armed Conflict Exposure, Human Capital Investments and Child Labor: Evidence from Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 68, Households in Conflict Network.
  4. Nillesen, Eleonora & Verwim, Philip, 2010. "A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi," Working Paper Series wp2010-44, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Patricia Justino & Marinella Leone & Paola Salardi, 2011. "Education and Conflict Recovery: The Case of Timor Leste," HiCN Working Papers 100, Households in Conflict Network.

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