An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
AbstractEleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economie d'Avant Garde in its series Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports with number 20.
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.jeremygreenwood.net/EAG.htm
Bayesian learning; circumcision; condoms; disease transmission; HIV/AIDS; homo economicus; Malawi; marriage; policy intervention; sex markets; search; STDs;
Other versions of this item:
- Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 18953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 9423, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philipp Kircher & Michele Tertilt & Cezar Santos & Jeremy Greenwood, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," 2013 Meeting Papers 195, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
- D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
- E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
- I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2013-04-13 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2013-04-13 (Development)
- NEP-DGE-2013-04-13 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-HEA-2013-04-13 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gautier, Pieter A. & Svarer, Michael & Teulings, Coen N., 2010. "Marriage and the city: Search frictions and sorting of singles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 206-218, March.
- Jeremy Magruder, 2011. "Marital Shopping and Epidemic AIDS," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1401-1428, November.
- Nicolas L. Jacquet & Serene Tan, 2007.
"On the Segmentation of Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 639-664, 08.
- Nicolas L. Jacquet & Serene Tan, 2007. "On the Segmentation of Markets," Labor Economics Working Papers 22449, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Nicolas L. Jacquet & Serene Tan, 2007. "On the Segmentation of Markets," Working Papers 18-2007, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Serene Tan & Nicolas L Jacquet, 2005. "On the Segmentation of Markets," 2005 Meeting Papers 456, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kremer, Michael, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-73, May.
- FFF1Georges NNN1Reniers, 2003. "Divorce and Remarriage in Rural Malawi," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(6), pages 175-206, September.
- Ashraf, Nava & Bandiera, Oriana & Jack, Kelsey, 2012. "No margin, no mission? A Field Experiment on Incentives for Pro-Social Tasks," CEPR Discussion Papers 8834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pascaline Dupas, 2009.
"Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya,"
NBER Working Papers
14707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pascaline Dupas, 2011. "Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, January.
- De Walque, Damien, 2004.
"How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment ? Evidence from rural Uganda,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3289, The World Bank.
- de Walque, Damien, 2007. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 686-714, November.
- Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner, 2009.
"Social Change: The Sexual Revolution,"
RCER Working Papers
550, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Rebecca L. Thornton, 2008. "The Demand for, and Impact of, Learning HIV Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1829-63, December.
- Emily Oster, 2005. "Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior, and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 467-515, May.
- Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Canning, 2006.
"The Economics of HIV/AIDS in Low-Income Countries: The Case for Prevention,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 121-142, Summer.
- David Canning, 2006. "The Economics of HIV/AIDS in Low-Income Countries: The Case for Prevention," PGDA Working Papers 1806, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- Boulier, Bryan L & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1984. "Schooling, Search, and Spouse Selection: Testing Economic Theories of Marriage and Household Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(4), pages 712-32, August.
- Dana Goldman & Darius Lakdawalla & Neeraj Sood, 2004.
"HIV Breakthroughs and Risk Sexual Behavior,"
NBER Working Papers
10516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poulin, Michelle, 2007. "Sex, money, and premarital partnerships in southern Malawi," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(11), pages 2383-2393, December.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979.
"Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
- Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Recurrent Infection and Externalities in Prevention," CEPR Discussion Papers 8112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daniela Iorio & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2011. "Education, HIV Status, and Risky Sexual Behavior: How Much Does the Stage of the HIV Epidemic Matter?," Working Papers 624, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-46, July-Aug..
- Paul Gertler & Manisha Shah & Stefano M. Bertozzi, 2005. "Risky Business: The Market for Unprotected Commercial Sex," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 518-550, June.
- Klein, Eili & Laxminarayan, Ramanan & Smith, David L. & Gilligan, Christopher A., 2007. "Economic incentives and mathematical models of disease," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 707-732, October.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-04-15 21:45:56
- MichÃ¨le Tertilt, 2012. "The Research Agenda: MichÃ¨le Tertilt on Gender in Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), November.
- Jeremy Greenwood, 2011. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Jeremy Greenwood on DGE beyond Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), April.
- Rodolfo Manuelli, 2011. "Disease and Development: The Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 2011-008, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeremy Greenwood).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.