An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
AbstractEleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economie d'Avant Garde in its series Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports with number 20.
Date of creation: Apr 2013
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Bayesian learning; circumcision; condoms; disease transmission; HIV/AIDS; homo economicus; Malawi; marriage; policy intervention; sex markets; search; STDs;
Other versions of this item:
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 9423, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 18953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philipp Kircher & Michele Tertilt & Cezar Santos & Jeremy Greenwood, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," 2013 Meeting Papers 195, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
- D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
- E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
- I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2013-04-13 (Development)
- NEP-DGE-2013-04-13 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-HEA-2013-04-13 (Health Economics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-04-15 21:45:56
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