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The Effect of Monetary Unification on Public Debt and its Real Return

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Author Info
Roel Beetsma ()
Koen Vermeylen ()

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Abstract

We explore the implications of monetary unification for real interest rates and (relative) public debt levels. The adoption of a common monetary policy renders the risk-return characteristics of the participating countries more similar, so that the substitutability of their public debt increases after unification. This implies that the average expected real return on the debt increases. Also, the share of the unionwide debt issued by relatively myopic governments or of countries that initially have a relatively dependent central bank increases after unification. This may put the political sustainability of the union under pressure. A transfer scheme that penalizes debt increases beyond the union average is able to undo the interest rate effect of unification, but magnifies the spread in relative debt levels.

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Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1400.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1400

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Related research
Keywords: monetary union (relative) public debt interest rates externalities substitutability central bank independence

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "One Money, but Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What Are the Consequences?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. van Aarle, Bas & Lans Bovenberg, A. & Raith, Matthias G., 1997. "Is there a tragedy of a common central bank? A dynamic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 417-447. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Beetsma, Roel M W J & Bovenberg, A Lans, 2001. "The Optimality of a Monetary Union without a Fiscal Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 179-204, May.
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  5. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Buiter, Willem H & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "`Excessive Deficits': Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht," CEPR Discussion Papers 750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Xavier Debrun, 2000. "Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: A Short-Run Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 323-358, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Restoy, Fernando, 1996. "Interest rates and fiscal discipline in monetary unions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1629-1646, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Beetsma, R. & Bovenberg, L., 1995. "Does monetary unification lead to excessive debt accumulation," Discussion Paper 112, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "Monetary Union without Fiscal Coordination May Discipline Policymakers," DELTA Working Papers 95-22, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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  13. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Diba, Behzad T., 1991. "Fiscal deficits, financial integration, and a central bank for Europe," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 381-403, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Dixit, Avinash, 2001. "Games of monetary and fiscal interactions in the EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 589-613, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Kevin Sheppard & Robert F. Engle & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2003. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns," Working Paper Series 204, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Ford, Robert & Laxton, Douglas, 1999. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, Summer.
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  22. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2001. "Labour Markets and Monetary Union: A Strategic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(473), pages 541-65, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carsten Detken & Vítor Gaspar & Bernhard Winkler, 2005. "On Prosperity and Posterity: The Need for Fiscal Discipline in a Monetary Union," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 30, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jerome Creel & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2003. "Inflation divergence and public deficits in a monetary union," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2003-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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