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The Vulnerability of Banks to Government Default Risk in the EMU

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  • Ivo Arnold
  • Jan Lemmen

Abstract

This paper examines the vulnerability of banks in EMU countries to shocks to default risk premiums on public debt. This vulnerability depends on the total amount of public debt in bank portfolios, the degree of geographical diversification of public debt holdings by banks, and the extent to which the default risk of EMU governments is diversifiable. We calculate the effect of country‐specific default shocks on the public debt portfolios of banks. The calculations are based on data of public debt positions at the aggregate banking sector level and take into account the historical covariance structure of default risk premiums in the EMU. We compare the following scenarios. First, we calculate the effect on the standard deviation of the capital‐to‐assets ratio if banks continue to hold mainly domestic public debt. Next, we calculate this effect if banks diversify their investments in public debt. We find that the standard deviation of the capital‐to‐assets ratio can decline considerably if banks diversify their public debt holdings. We close withsome implications for prudential regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Arnold & Jan Lemmen, 2001. "The Vulnerability of Banks to Government Default Risk in the EMU," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 101-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:4:y:2001:i:1:p:101-125
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-2362.00067
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    1. Buti, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Franco, D., 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact : Grand design or internal adjustment?," Other publications TiSEM 043c3668-8744-491c-a329-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    3. Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2008. "Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-479, April.
    4. Waeibrorheem Waemustafa & Suriani Sukri, 2015. "Bank Specific and Macroeconomics Dynamic Determinants of Credit Risk in Islamic Banks and Conventional Banks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 476-481.
    5. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2018. "Sovereign bond holdings and monetary policy operations in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1243-1254.
    6. van Riet, Ad, 2015. "Market-preserving fiscal federalism in the European Monetary Union," MPRA Paper 77772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    8. Ullrich, Katrin, 2006. "Market discipline and the use of government bonds as collateral in the EMU," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-046, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Fazlioglu, S., 2013. "Determinants of sovereign debt yield spreads under EMU: Pairwise approach," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    10. Roel Beetsma & Koen Vermeylen, 2007. "The effect of monetary unification on public debt and its real return," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 393-415, December.
    11. Georges Hübner & Robert Joliet, 2013. "Government Debt Denomination Policies Before and After the EMU Advent," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 283-309, April.
    12. Marcel Canoy & Machiel van Dijk & Jan Lemmen & Ruud de Mooij & Jürgen Weigand, 2001. "Competition and stability in banking," CPB Document 15.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    14. Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2012. "Sovereign debt exposures and banking risks in the current EU financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 906-920.
    15. Louis Rouanet & Peter Hazlett, 2023. "The redistributive politics of monetary policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 1-26, January.

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