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Sovereign debt exposures and banking risks in the current EU financial crisis

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  • Arnold, Ivo J.M.

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between sovereign risk and banking risk during the European sovereign debt crisis in May 2010. We link banks’ stock returns and CDS rates to sovereign CDS rates, to examine the spillover of sovereign risk to the banking system in the EU. More specifically, we use sovereign debt exposures from the EU's July 2010 stress tests to investigate whether heavily exposed banks were hit harder during the May 2010 crisis. The results are mixed. Banks exposed to distressed sovereign debt respond more strongly to changes in sovereign CDS rates. On closer examination, however, this result appears to be driven by banks which are located in countries experiencing sovereign debt problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2012. "Sovereign debt exposures and banking risks in the current EU financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 906-920.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:6:p:906-920
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.05.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arnold, Ivo J. M., 2007. "Financial stability in the Eurozone: where do we stand?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 65-79.
    2. Buti, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Franco, D., 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact : Grand design or internal adjustment?," Other publications TiSEM 043c3668-8744-491c-a329-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "Government Ownership of Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 265-301, February.
    4. Arnold, Ivo & Lemmen, Jan, 2001. "The Vulnerability of Banks to Government Default Risk in the EMU," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 101-125, Spring.
    5. Buti, Marco, 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34908, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Ivo Arnold & Jan Lemmen, 2001. "The Vulnerability of Banks to Government Default Risk in the EMU," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 101-125.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 66-113.
    8. World Bank, 2001. "Finance for Growth : Policy Choices in a Volatile World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13895, December.
    9. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Patrick Slovik, 2010. "The EU Stress Test and Sovereign Debt Exposures," OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions 4, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Florian Kiy & Theresa Zick, 2020. "Effects of declining bank health on borrowers’ earnings quality: evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(4), pages 615-673, May.
    2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Hélène Raymond & Houda Rharrabti, 2014. "The impact of the global and eurozone crises on European banks stocks Some evidence of shift contagion," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Han-Hsing Lee & Kuanyu Shih & Kehluh Wang, 2016. "Measuring sovereign credit risk using a structural model approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1097-1128, November.
    4. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.
    5. Spelta, A. & Pecora, N. & Rovira Kaltwasser, P., 2019. "Identifying Systemically Important Banks: A temporal approach for macroprudential policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 197-218.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15008 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hervé Alexandre & François Guillemin & Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2015. "Downgrades of sovereign credit ratings and impact on banks CDS spread: does disclosure by banks improve stability?," Post-Print hal-01622782, HAL.
    8. Hervé Alexandre & François Guillemin & Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2015. "Disclosure, banks CDS spreads and the European sovereign crisis," Working Papers 2015-10, CRESE.
    9. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Mohamed Mehanaoui & Farhan Akbar, 2014. "The shift-contagion effect of global financial crisis and the European debt crisis on OECD Countries," Working Papers 2014-128, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    10. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Raymond, Hélène & Rharrabti, Houda, 2017. "The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on banks stocks. Some evidence of shift contagion in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-37.
    11. Betz, Frank & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schienle, Melanie, 2016. "Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 206-224.
    12. Keddad, Benjamin & Schalck, Christophe, 2020. "Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 356-375.
    13. Dean, James W. & Muchova, Eva & Lisy, Jan, 2013. "How Slovakia has kept the confidence fairy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 487-503.
    14. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    15. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2018. "Sovereign bond holdings and monetary policy operations in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1243-1254.
    16. Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Mengmeng & Xiao, Ling & Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Conditional sovereign CDS in market basket risk scenario: A dynamic vine-copula analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Credit crisis; Euro area; Banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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