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The Vulnerability of Banks to Government default risk in the EMU

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Author Info
Ivo J. M. Arnold
Jan J.G. Lemmen

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Abstract

CThis paper examines the vulnerability of banks in EMU countries to shocks to default risk premiums on public debt. This vulnerability depends on (1) the total amount of public debt in bank portfolios, (2) the extent to which the default risk of public debt of EMU member states is diversifiable, and (3) the degree of actual geographical diversification of public debt holdings by banks. We simulate the effect of country-specific default shocks on the market value of public debt held by banks. The simulations are based on data of public debt positions at the aggregate banking sector level and take into account the historical covariance structure of default risk premiums in the EMU. We compare two scenarios. First, we calculate the domestic public debt. Next, we calculate this effect if banks diversify their investments in public debt across EMU governments. We find that the standard deviation of the equity-to-assets ratio declines considerably if banks diversify their public debt holdings and conclude that the risks of bank failures caused by default on public debt can be reduced through proper geographical diversification. We close with some implications for prudential regulation.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Special Papers with number sp115.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp115

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  1. Samir Jahjah, 2001. "Financial Stability and Fiscal Crises in a Monetary Union," IMF Working Papers 01/201, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Ludger Schuknecht, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Papers 151, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Roel Beetsma & Koen Vermeylen, 2005. "The Effect of Monetary Unification on Public Debt and its Real Return," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marta Gomez Puig, 2005. "Monetary Integration and the Cost of Borrowing," Working Papers in Economics 134, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Ludger Schuknecht, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 369, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ullrich, Katrin, 2006. "Market discipline and the use of government bonds as collateral in the EMU," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-46, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Debora Di Gioacchino & Sergio Ginebri & Laura Sabani, 2005. "Public Debt Repudiation In A Monetary Union: The Role Of The Geographical Allocation Of Domestic Debt," Working Papers 81, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
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