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The Vulnerability of Banks to Government default risk in the EMU

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  • Ivo J. M. Arnold
  • Jan J.G. Lemmen

Abstract

CThis paper examines the vulnerability of banks in EMU countries to shocks to default risk premiums on public debt. This vulnerability depends on (1) the total amount of public debt in bank portfolios, (2) the extent to which the default risk of public debt of EMU member states is diversifiable, and (3) the degree of actual geographical diversification of public debt holdings by banks. We simulate the effect of country-specific default shocks on the market value of public debt held by banks. The simulations are based on data of public debt positions at the aggregate banking sector level and take into account the historical covariance structure of default risk premiums in the EMU. We compare two scenarios. First, we calculate the domestic public debt. Next, we calculate this effect if banks diversify their investments in public debt across EMU governments. We find that the standard deviation of the equity-to-assets ratio declines considerably if banks diversify their public debt holdings and conclude that the risks of bank failures caused by default on public debt can be reduced through proper geographical diversification. We close with some implications for prudential regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo J. M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 1999. "The Vulnerability of Banks to Government default risk in the EMU," FMG Special Papers sp115, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgsps:sp115
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    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/documents/specialPapers/1990s/sp115.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2008. "Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-479, April.
    2. Waeibrorheem Waemustafa & Suriani Sukri, 2015. "Bank Specific and Macroeconomics Dynamic Determinants of Credit Risk in Islamic Banks and Conventional Banks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 476-481.
    3. van Riet, Ad, 2015. "Market-preserving fiscal federalism in the European Monetary Union," MPRA Paper 77772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ullrich, Katrin, 2006. "Market discipline and the use of government bonds as collateral in the EMU," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-046, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Fazlioglu, S., 2013. "Determinants of sovereign debt yield spreads under EMU: Pairwise approach," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    6. Roel Beetsma & Koen Vermeylen, 2007. "The effect of monetary unification on public debt and its real return," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 393-415, December.
    7. Georges Hübner & Robert Joliet, 2013. "Government Debt Denomination Policies Before and After the EMU Advent," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 283-309, April.
    8. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    9. Marco Buti & Sylvester Eijffinger & Daniele Franco, 2003. "Revisiting the Stability and Growth Pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 180, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Marcel Canoy & Machiel van Dijk & Jan Lemmen & Ruud de Mooij & Jürgen Weigand, 2001. "Competition and stability in banking," CPB Document 15.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    12. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2018. "Sovereign bond holdings and monetary policy operations in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1243-1254.
    13. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    14. Arnold, Ivo J.M., 2012. "Sovereign debt exposures and banking risks in the current EU financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 906-920.
    15. Louis Rouanet & Peter Hazlett, 2023. "The redistributive politics of monetary policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 1-26, January.

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