IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v31y2023ics2405851323000405.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee

Author

Listed:
  • Holmes, Mark J.
  • Otero, Jesús

Abstract

This paper investigates the possibility of psychological barriers in the price dynamics of seven types of coffee varieties over a twenty-year period. When prices are expressed in hundreds of cents, barriers surrounding the round number prices ending in 00 are confirmed for the high quality coffees. The dynamics of coffee price returns differ before and after breaches of hypothesised barriers. Using a novel model selection method based on multiple testing, there is further confirmation of price barriers insofar as positive and negative climate anomalies affect coffee price proximity to barriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:31:y:2023:i:c:s2405851323000405
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851323000405
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100350?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    2. A. Chudik & G. Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2018. "A One Covariate at a Time, Multiple Testing Approach to Variable Selection in High‐Dimensional Linear Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1479-1512, July.
    3. Otero, Jesus & Milas, Costas, 2001. "Modelling the spot prices of various coffee types," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-641, December.
    4. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Psychological barriers in gold prices?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 217-230.
    5. Bevan, D L & Collier, P & Gunning, J W, 1987. "Consequences of a Commodity Boom in a Controlled Economy: Accumulation and Redistribution in Kenya 1975-83," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 1(3), pages 489-513, May.
    6. De Ceuster, Marc J. K. & Dhaene, Geert & Schatteman, Tom, 1998. "On the hypothesis of psychological barriers in stock markets and Benford's Law," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 263-279, September.
    7. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    8. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    9. Leybourne, S J, 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots Using Forward and Reverse Dickey-Fuller Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 559-571, November.
    10. Mehta, Aashish & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the coffee crisis: What can we learn from price dynamics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 282-311, February.
    11. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    12. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.
    13. Ghysels, Eric, 1990. "Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 145-152, April.
    14. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
    15. Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2015. "Behavioral influences in non-ferrous metals prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-22.
    16. Ken B. Cyree & Dale L. Domian & David A. Louton & Elizabeth J. Yobaccio, 1999. "Evidence of psychological barriers in the conditional moments of major world stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 73-91.
    17. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
    19. Coe, Cari An, 2006. "Farmer Participation in Market Authorities of Coffee Exporting Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2089-2115, December.
    20. Dowling, Michael & Cummins, Mark & Lucey, Brian M., 2016. "Psychological barriers in oil futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 293-304.
    21. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Agricultural commodity markets and oil prices: An analysis of the dynamic return and volatility connectedness," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    22. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    23. De Grauwe, Paul & Decupere, Danny, 1992. "Psychological Barriers in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Manuel A. Hernandez & Shahidur Rashid & Solomon Lemma & Tadesse Kuma, 2017. "Market Institutions and Price Relationships: The Case of Coffee in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(3), pages 683-704.
    25. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    26. Mehta, A. & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the Coffee Crisis: What We Can Learn from Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201444, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Food System Research Group.
    27. Manuel A. Hernandez & Shahidur Rashid & Solomon Lemma & Tadesse Kuma, 2017. "Market Institutions and Price Relationships: The Case of Coffee in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(3), pages 683-704.
    28. Robert I. Webb & Jason Mitchell, 2001. "Clustering and psychological barriers: the importance of numbers," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 395-428, May.
    29. repec:eme:sef000:sef-09-2019-0356 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2022. "Conditional tail price risk spillovers in coffee markets across quality, physical space, and time: Empirical analysis with penalized quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    31. Fernandez, Viviana, 2014. "Linear and non-linear causality between price indices and commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-51.
    32. Otero, Jesus G., 2000. "Coffee, economic fluctuations and stabilisation: an intertemporal disequilibrium model with capital market imperfections," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 105-129, June.
    33. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    34. Atanu Ghoshray, 2010. "The Extent Of The World Coffee Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 97-107, January.
    35. Bill Russell & Sushil Mohan & Anindya Banerjee, 2012. "Coffee Market Liberalisation and the Implications for Producers in Brazil, Guatemala and India," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 26(3), pages 514-538.
    36. Otero, Jesús & Argüello, Ricardo & Oviedo, Juan Daniel & Ramírez, Manuel, 2018. "Explaining coffee price differentials in terms of chemical markers: Evidence from a pairwise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 190-201.
    37. Donaldson, R. Glen & Kim, Harold Y., 1993. "Price Barriers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 313-330, September.
    38. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero, 2020. "A tale of two coffees? Analysing interaction and futures market efficiency," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 89-109, February.
    39. Said Tifaoui & Stephan Cramon‐Taubadel, 2017. "Temporary Sales Prices and Asymmetric Price Transmission," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 85-97, January.
    40. Koedijk, Kees G. & Stork, Philip A., 1994. "Should we care? psychological barriers in stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 427-432, April.
    41. Panos Fousekis & Vasilis Grigoriadis, 2017. "Joint price dynamics of quality differentiated commodities: copula evidence from coffee varieties," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358.
    42. Héctor M. Núñez & Jesús Otero, 2021. "A one covariate at a time, multiple testing approach to variable selection in high‐dimensional linear regression models: A replication in a narrow sense," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 833-841, September.
    43. Vogelvang, E, 1992. "Hypotheses Testing Concerning Relationships between Spot Prices of Various Types of Coffee," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 191-201, April-Jun.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Júlio Lobão & Natércia Fortuna & Franklin Silva, 2020. "Do psychological barriers exist in Latin American stock markets?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 29-56, October.
    2. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    3. Li, Dan & Liu, Lixin & Xu, Guangli, 2023. "Psychological barriers and option pricing in a local volatility model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Otero, Jesús & Argüello, Ricardo & Oviedo, Juan Daniel & Ramírez, Manuel, 2018. "Explaining coffee price differentials in terms of chemical markers: Evidence from a pairwise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 190-201.
    5. César Carrera, 2015. "Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 35-41, April.
    6. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A High-Frequency Analysis of Price Resolution and Pricing Barriers in Equities on the Adoption of a New Currency," Post-Print hal-01994666, HAL.
    8. Woodhouse, Sam Alan & Singh, Harminder & Bhattacharya, Sukanto & Kumar, Kuldeep, 2016. "Invisible walls: Do psychological barriers really exist in stock index levels?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 267-278.
    9. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Ocean Fan Lu & David Giles, 2010. "Benford's Law and psychological barriers in certain eBay auctions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1005-1008.
    11. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2022. "Conditional tail price risk spillovers in coffee markets across quality, physical space, and time: Empirical analysis with penalized quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    12. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A high-frequency analysis of price resolution and pricing barriers in equities on the adoption of a new currency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(36), pages 3949-3965, August.
    13. Stavrakoudis, Athanassios & Panagiotou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Price dependence and asymmetric responses between coffee varieties," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2), June.
    14. Lucey, Michael E. & O'Connor, Fergal A., 2016. "Mind the gap: Psychological barriers in gold and silver prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 135-140.
    15. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Klein, Christian, 2009. "Psychological barriers in European stock markets: Where are they?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 268-285.
    16. Mitchell, Jason & Izan, H.Y., 2006. "Clustering and psychological barriers in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 318-344, October.
    17. Daniel Grandisky Lerner & Helder Marcos Freitas Pereira & Maria Sylvia Macchione Saes & Gustavo Magalhães de Oliveira, 2021. "When Unfair Trade Is Also at Home: The Economic Sustainability of Coffee Farms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, January.
    18. Brown, Philip & Mitchell, Jason, 2008. "Culture and stock price clustering: Evidence from The Peoples' Republic of China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 95-120, January.
    19. Stavrakoudis, Athanassios & Panagiotou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Price dependence between coffee qualities: a copula model to evaluate asymmetric responses," MPRA Paper 75994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Evidence of oil market price clustering during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Psychological price barriers; Coffee; Climate anomalies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:31:y:2023:i:c:s2405851323000405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.