IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v49y2017icp1-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Psychological price barriers in frontier equities

Author

Listed:
  • Berk, Ales S.
  • Cummins, Mark
  • Dowling, Michael
  • Lucey, Brian M.

Abstract

Psychological barriers are shown to be a feature in frontier market equity pricing. Using MSCI Frontier 100 index constituents; prices, upon breaching an upward or downward psychologically important price point, generally follow predictable patterns in the days after such a breach. It is demonstrated that certain characteristics of frontier markets drive the presence of this relationship. There are regional effects, and also cultural influences as measured by country individualism scores. Liquidity also appears to mediate the presence of psychological barriers. This constitutes a first study of behavioral influences in these fast-growing markets that are being increasingly recognised as an asset class with strong diversification benefits for investors previously restricted to developed and emerging equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.11.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443116301822
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2016.11.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, Ai-Ru & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Rothman, Philip, 2010. "An empirical investigation of stock market behavior in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 413-427, June.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Sagarika Mishra & Seema Narayan, 2015. "New empirical evidence on the bid-ask spread," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(42), pages 4484-4500, September.
    3. Victor Niederhoffer, 1965. "A New Look at Clustering of Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 309-309.
    4. Berger, Dave & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Jimmy Yang, J., 2011. "International diversification with frontier markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 227-242, July.
    5. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Psychological barriers in gold prices?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 217-230.
    6. Lei Feng & Mark Seasholes, 2005. "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 305-351, September.
    7. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya S., 2010. "A cross-cultural study of reference point adaptation: Evidence from China, Korea, and the US," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 99-111, July.
    8. Lei Feng & Mark S. Seasholes, 2005. "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(3), pages 305-351.
    9. de Groot, Wilma & Pang, Juan & Swinkels, Laurens, 2012. "The cross-section of stock returns in frontier emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 796-818.
    10. Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2015. "Behavioral influences in non-ferrous metals prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-22.
    11. David L. Ikenberry & James P. Weston, 2008. "Clustering in US Stock Prices after Decimalisation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(1), pages 30-54, January.
    12. Meng, Lei & Verousis, Thanos & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "A substitution effect between price clustering and size clustering in credit default swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 139-152.
    13. Andy C.W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2010. "Individualism and Momentum around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 361-392, February.
    14. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2015. "Frontier market transaction costs and diversification," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    15. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    16. Cyree, Ken B. & Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A. & Yobaccio, Elizabeth J., 1999. "Evidence of psychological barriers in the conditional moments of major world stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 73-91, June.
    17. Dowling, Michael & Cummins, Mark & Lucey, Brian M., 2016. "Psychological barriers in oil futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 293-304.
    18. Da Costa, Newton & Goulart, Marco & Cupertino, Cesar & Macedo, Jurandir & Da Silva, Sergio, 2013. "The disposition effect and investor experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1669-1675.
    19. Woodhouse, Sam Alan & Singh, Harminder & Bhattacharya, Sukanto & Kumar, Kuldeep, 2016. "Invisible walls: Do psychological barriers really exist in stock index levels?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 267-278.
    20. Robert I. Webb & Jason Mitchell, 2001. "Clustering and psychological barriers: the importance of numbers," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 395-428, May.
    21. Sonnemans, Joep, 2006. "Price clustering and natural resistance points in the Dutch stock market: A natural experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1937-1950, November.
    22. Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen, 2012. "Idiosyncratic risk and expected returns in frontier markets: Evidence from GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 538-554.
    23. Rühl, Tobias R. & Stein, Michael, 2015. "The impact of ECB macro-announcements on bid–ask spreads of European blue chips," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 54-71.
    24. Vladimir Benic & Ivna Franic, 2008. "Stock Market Liquidity: Comparative Analysis of Croatian and Regional Markets," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(4), pages 477-498.
    25. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, June.
    26. Li, Jun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2012. "Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 401-419.
    27. Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2010. "Hypothesis Testing in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 75-104, September.
    28. Chen, Mei-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2014. "Frontier stock market integration and the global financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 84-103.
    29. Aragon, George O. & Dieckmann, Stephan, 2011. "Stock market trading activity and returns around milestones," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 570-584, September.
    30. M. F. M. Osborne, 1962. "Periodic Structure in the Brownian Motion of Stock Prices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 345-379, June.
    31. Venkatesh, P C & Chiang, R, 1986. "Information Asymmetry and the Dealer's Bid-Ask Spread: A Case Study of Earnings and Dividend Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1089-1102, December.
    32. Utpal Bhattacharya & Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen, 2012. "Penny Wise, Dollar Foolish: Buy-Sell Imbalances On and Around Round Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 413-431, February.
    33. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Klein, Christian, 2009. "Psychological barriers in European stock markets: Where are they?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 268-285.
    34. Donaldson, R. Glen & Kim, Harold Y., 1993. "Price Barriers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 313-330, September.
    35. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    36. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2013. "Liquidity measurement in frontier markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-12.
    37. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2016. "Editor's Choice … and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 5-68.
    38. Victor Niederhoffer, 1965. "Clustering of Stock Prices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 13(2), pages 258-265, April.
    39. Mitchell, Jason & Izan, H.Y., 2006. "Clustering and psychological barriers in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 318-344, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "The instability of stablecoins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    3. Jonathan Batten & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2019. "Liquidity And Firm Value In An Emerging Market," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(02), pages 365-376, March.
    4. Tsafack, Georges & Becker, Ying & Han, Ki, 2023. "Earnings announcement premium and return volatility: Is it consistent with risk-return trade-off?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A high-frequency analysis of price resolution and pricing barriers in equities on the adoption of a new currency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(36), pages 3949-3965, August.
    6. J˙lio Lob„o & Margarida Couto, 2019. "Are there Psychological Barriers in Asian Stock Markets?," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 15(1), pages 83-106.
    7. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A High-Frequency Analysis of Price Resolution and Pricing Barriers in Equities on the Adoption of a New Currency," Post-Print hal-01994666, HAL.
    8. Júlio Lobão & Natércia Fortuna & Franklin Silva, 2020. "Do psychological barriers exist in Latin American stock markets?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 29-56, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2015. "Behavioral influences in non-ferrous metals prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-22.
    2. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A High-Frequency Analysis of Price Resolution and Pricing Barriers in Equities on the Adoption of a New Currency," Post-Print hal-01994666, HAL.
    3. Christos Alexakis & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Vasileios Pappas, 2018. "A high-frequency analysis of price resolution and pricing barriers in equities on the adoption of a new currency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(36), pages 3949-3965, August.
    4. Donglian Ma & Hisashi Tanizaki, 2022. "Intraday patterns of price clustering in Bitcoin," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Li, Dan & Liu, Lixin & Xu, Guangli, 2023. "Psychological barriers and option pricing in a local volatility model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Vladim'ir Hol'y & Petra Tomanov'a, 2021. "Modeling Price Clustering in High-Frequency Prices," Papers 2102.12112, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    7. Júlio Lobão & Natércia Fortuna & Franklin Silva, 2020. "Do psychological barriers exist in Latin American stock markets?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 29-56, October.
    8. Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2021. "The round number heuristic and entrepreneur crowdfunding performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Bill M. Cai & Charlie X. Cai & Kevin Keasey, 2007. "Influence of cultural factors on price clustering and price resistance in China's stock markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(4), pages 623-641, December.
    10. Robert Brooks & Edwyna Harris & Yovina Joymungul, 2013. "Price clustering in Australian water markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 677-685, February.
    11. Dowling, Michael & Cummins, Mark & Lucey, Brian M., 2016. "Psychological barriers in oil futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 293-304.
    12. Brown, Philip & Mitchell, Jason, 2008. "Culture and stock price clustering: Evidence from The Peoples' Republic of China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 95-120, January.
    13. Shiyu Song & Yongjin Wang, 2017. "Pricing double barrier options under a volatility regime-switching model with psychological barriers," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 255-280, October.
    14. Lallouache, Mehdi & Abergel, Frédéric, 2014. "Tick size reduction and price clustering in a FX order book," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 488-498.
    15. Li, Xin & Li, Shenghong & Xu, Chong, 2020. "Price clustering in Bitcoin market—An extension," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    16. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    17. Baltzer, Markus & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2019. "Who trades on momentum?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 56-74.
    18. Ahmed S. Baig & Benjamin M. Blau & R. Jared DeLisle, 2022. "Does mutual fund ownership reduce stock price clustering? Evidence from active and index funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 615-647, February.
    19. Ocean Fan Lu & David Giles, 2010. "Benford's Law and psychological barriers in certain eBay auctions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1005-1008.
    20. Woodhouse, Sam Alan & Singh, Harminder & Bhattacharya, Sukanto & Kumar, Kuldeep, 2016. "Invisible walls: Do psychological barriers really exist in stock index levels?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 267-278.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.