IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/corfin/v68y2021ics0929119921000146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The round number heuristic and entrepreneur crowdfunding performance

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Tse-Chun
  • Pursiainen, Vesa

Abstract

We document a novel pattern that campaign goal amounts set by entrepreneurs on Kickstarter exhibit clear clustering at round numbers. We propose that the round number heuristic, a tendency to adopt round numbers as cognitive shortcuts when facing complicated and uncertain situations, may explain the clustering pattern and predict campaign outcomes. Based on 162,863 campaigns between 2009 and 2017, we find a negative relation between the use of round goal amounts and the likelihood of campaign success. Our findings suggest that setting a round number goal conveys useful information about entrepreneur quality that could be used by campaign backers or platforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2021. "The round number heuristic and entrepreneur crowdfunding performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0929119921000146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119921000146
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101894?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei-Yu Kuo & Tse-Chun Lin & Jing Zhao, 2015. "Cognitive Limitation and Investment Performance: Evidence from Limit Order Clustering," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 838-875.
    2. Francine Lafontaine & Kathryn Shaw, 2016. "Serial Entrepreneurship: Learning by Doing?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 217-254.
    3. Victor Niederhoffer, 1965. "A New Look at Clustering of Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 309-309.
    4. Charles Kahn & George Pennacchi & Ben Sopranzetti, 1999. "Bank Deposit Rate Clustering: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2185-2214, December.
    5. Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H & Cone, Kenneth R & Fischel, Daniel R & Ross, David J, 1997. "Clustering and Competition in Asset Markets," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 23-60, April.
    6. Douglas J. Cumming & Gaël Leboeuf & Armin Schwienbacher, 2020. "Crowdfunding models: Keep‐It‐All vs. All‐Or‐Nothing," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 331-360, June.
    7. Hadar Gafni & Dan Marom & Alicia Robb & Orly Sade, 2021. "Gender Dynamics in Crowdfunding (Kickstarter): Evidence on Entrepreneurs, Backers, and Taste-Based Discrimination [Women on the verge of a breakthrough: networking among entrepreneurs in the United," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 235-274.
    8. Catrin Ormerod & Felix Ritchie, 2007. "Issues in the measurement of low pay," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 1(6), pages 37-45, June.
    9. Lei Feng & Mark Seasholes, 2005. "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 305-351, September.
    10. Ewens, Michael & Townsend, Richard R., 2020. "Are early stage investors biased against women?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 653-677.
    11. Kandel, Shmuel & Sarig, Oded & Wohl, Avi, 2001. "Do investors prefer round stock prices? Evidence from Israeli IPO auctions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1543-1551, August.
    12. Thomas Hellmann & Manju Puri, 2002. "Venture Capital and the Professionalization of Start‐Up Firms: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 169-197, February.
    13. Roland Strausz, 2017. "A Theory of Crowdfunding: A Mechanism Design Approach with Demand Uncertainty and Moral Hazard," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1430-1476, June.
    14. Clifford A. Ball & Walter N. Torous & Adrian E. Tschoegl, 1985. "The degree of price resolution: The case of the gold market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 29-43, March.
    15. Ellman, Matthew & Hurkens, Sjaak, 2019. "Optimal crowdfunding design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    16. Lei Feng & Mark S. Seasholes, 2005. "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(3), pages 305-351.
    17. Bradley, Daniel J. & Cooney, John W. & Jordan, Bradford D. & Singh, Ajai K., 2004. "Negotiation and the IPO Offer Price: A Comparison of Integer vs. Non-Integer IPOs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 517-540, September.
    18. Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2000. "The Interaction between Product Market and Financing Strategy: The Role of Venture Capital," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 959-984.
    19. Mollick, Ethan, 2014. "The dynamics of crowdfunding: An exploratory study," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16.
    20. Schindler, Robert M & Kirby, Patrick N, 1997. "Patterns of Rightmost Digits Used in Advertised Prices: Implications for Nine-Ending Effects," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 24(2), pages 192-201, September.
    21. Thomas Hildebrand & Manju Puri & Jörg Rocholl, 2017. "Adverse Incentives in Crowdfunding," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 587-608, March.
    22. Gompers, Paul & Kovner, Anna & Lerner, Josh & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Performance persistence in entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 18-32, April.
    23. Mola, Simona & Loughran, Tim, 2004. "Discounting and Clustering in Seasoned Equity Offering Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 1-23, March.
    24. Harris, Lawrence, 1991. "Stock Price Clustering and Discreteness," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 389-415.
    25. Manoj Thomas & Daniel H. Simon & Vrinda Kadiyali, 2010. "The Price Precision Effect: Evidence from Laboratory and Market Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190, 01-02.
    26. Whynes, David K. & Frew, Emma J. & Philips, Zoe N. & Covey, Judith & Smith, Richard D., 2007. "On the numerical forms of contingent valuation responses," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 462-476, August.
    27. Amit Seru & Tyler Shumway & Noah Stoffman, 2010. "Learning by Trading," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 705-739, February.
    28. M. F. M. Osborne, 1962. "Periodic Structure in the Brownian Motion of Stock Prices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 345-379, June.
    29. Utpal Bhattacharya & Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen, 2012. "Penny Wise, Dollar Foolish: Buy-Sell Imbalances On and Around Round Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 413-431, February.
    30. Henrik J. Kleven & Mazhar Waseem, 2013. "Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 669-723.
    31. Hadar Gafni & Dan Marom & Alicia Robb & Orly Sade, 0. "Gender Dynamics in Crowdfunding (Kickstarter): Evidence on Entrepreneurs, Backers, and Taste-Based Discrimination," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 235-274.
    32. Fabrice Hervé & Armin Schwienbacher, 2018. "Round-Number Bias in Investment: Evidence from Equity Crowdfunding," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 39(1), pages 71-105.
    33. Donaldson, R. Glen & Kim, Harold Y., 1993. "Price Barriers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 313-330, September.
    34. Sopranzetti, Ben J. & Datar, Vinay, 2002. "Price clustering in foreign exchange spot markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 411-417, October.
    35. Ravi Dhar & Ning Zhu, 2006. "Up Close and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 726-740, May.
    36. Victor Niederhoffer, 1965. "Clustering of Stock Prices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 13(2), pages 258-265, April.
    37. Mark J. Garmaise, 2015. "Borrower Misreporting and Loan Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 449-484, February.
    38. Strausz, Roland, 2017. "A Theory of Crowdfunding," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 2, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maggie Rong Hu & Xiaoyang Li & Yang Shi & Xiaoquan (Michael) Zhang, 2023. "Numerological Heuristics and Credit Risk in Peer-to-Peer Lending," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 1744-1760, December.
    2. Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2022. "Regional social capital and moral hazard in crowdfunding," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4).
    3. Zhu, Zujun & Huang, Qian & Liu, Hefu, 2023. "How heuristic cues impact crowdfunding performance: The moderating role of platform competition intensity and platform demand potential," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Zack Jourdan & J. Ken. Corley & Randall Valentine & Arthur M. Tran, 2023. "Fintech: A content analysis of the finance and information systems literature," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brown, Philip & Mitchell, Jason, 2008. "Culture and stock price clustering: Evidence from The Peoples' Republic of China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 95-120, January.
    2. Mitchell, Jason & Izan, H.Y., 2006. "Clustering and psychological barriers in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 318-344, October.
    3. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Mo Chaudhury, 2007. "Price clustering in the CAC 40 index options market," Post-Print halshs-00265668, HAL.
    4. Ahn, Hee-Joon & Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan Leung, 2005. "Price clustering on the limit-order book: Evidence from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 421-451, November.
    5. Li, Xin & Li, Shenghong & Xu, Chong, 2020. "Price clustering in Bitcoin market—An extension," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    6. Utpal Bhattacharya & Wei-Yu Kuo & Tse-Chun Lin & Jing Zhao, 2019. "Do Superstitious Traders Lose Money?," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2019-62, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised May 2019.
    7. Robert Brooks & Edwyna Harris & Yovina Joymungul, 2013. "Price clustering in Australian water markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 677-685, February.
    8. Berk, Ales S. & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Psychological price barriers in frontier equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2023. "Gender differences in reward-based crowdfunding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    11. Vladim'ir Hol'y & Petra Tomanov'a, 2021. "Modeling Price Clustering in High-Frequency Prices," Papers 2102.12112, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    12. Ahmed S. Baig & Benjamin M. Blau & R. Jared DeLisle, 2022. "Does mutual fund ownership reduce stock price clustering? Evidence from active and index funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 615-647, February.
    13. Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1820, October.
    14. Jeon, Jin Q. & Lee, Cheolwoo, 2015. "A new measure for heated negotiation in the IPO syndicate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 278-304.
    15. Utpal Bhattacharya & Wei-Yu Kuo & Tse-Chun Lin & Jing Zhao, 2018. "Do Superstitious Traders Lose Money?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3772-3791, August.
    16. Brown, Philip & Chua, Angeline & Mitchell, Jason, 2002. "The influence of cultural factors on price clustering: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 307-332, June.
    17. Donglian Ma & Hisashi Tanizaki, 2022. "Intraday patterns of price clustering in Bitcoin," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    18. Mishra, Ajay Kumar & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2018. "Price and trade size clustering: Evidence from the national stock exchange of India," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 63-72.
    19. Ryan L. Davis & Stephen N. Jurich & Brian S. Roseman & Ethan D. Watson, 2018. "Short-Sale Restrictions and Price Clustering: Evidence from SEC Rule 201," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 345-367, December.
    20. Bill M. Cai & Charlie X. Cai & Kevin Keasey, 2007. "Influence of cultural factors on price clustering and price resistance in China's stock markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(4), pages 623-641, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crowdfunding performance; Round number heuristic; Kickstarter; Fintech; Entrepreneur;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0929119921000146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcorpfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.