IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v84y2019ics0140988319302841.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe

Author

Listed:
  • Sephton, Peter S.

Abstract

El Niño and La Niña events have been shown to influence the prices of several varieties of coffee. This paper demonstrates that the coffee prices are threshold cointegrated around a non-linear attractor and that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events play an important role in the process.

Suggested Citation

  • Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:84:y:2019:i:c:s0140988319302841
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319302841
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104503?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2018. "Gold and crude oil prices after the great moderation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 273-281.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    4. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    5. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2013. "Further evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 177-181.
    6. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2005. "Testing For Threshold Nonlinearity in Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 344-371.
    7. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    8. Otero, Jesus & Milas, Costas, 2001. "Modelling the spot prices of various coffee types," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-641, December.
    9. Costas Milas & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2004. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
    10. Seo, Myung Hwan, 2008. "Unit Root Test In A Threshold Autoregression: Asymptotic Theory And Residual-Based Block Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1699-1716, December.
    11. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    12. David Ubilava, 2014. "El Niño Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(4), pages 583-604.
    13. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2015. "Nonlinear attractors and asymmetries between non-life insurance premiums and financial markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 783-799, November.
    14. David Bolder & Tiago Rubin, 2007. "Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis," Staff Working Papers 07-14, Bank of Canada.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    17. Peter Sephton, 2005. "Forecasting inflation using the term structure and MARS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 199-202.
    18. Daiki Maki & Shin-ichi Kitasaka, 2015. "Residual-based tests for cointegration with three-regime TAR adjustment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1013-1054, May.
    19. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 2002. "Bootstrap J tests of nonnested linear regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 167-193, July.
    20. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
    21. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert & Davidson, Russell, 1983. "Tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses : Some further results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-70, January.
    22. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.
    23. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2016. "Compelling Evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the United Kingdom," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 301-315, June.
    24. Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 39-49.
    25. Andrew Patton & Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2009. "Correction to “Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap” by D. Politis and H. White," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 372-375.
    26. Peter Sephton, 2008. "Critical values of the augmented fractional Dickey–Fuller test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 437-450, November.
    27. Ignacio N Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2007. "Efficient Wald Tests for Fractional Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 575-589, March.
    28. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    29. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero, 2002. "Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 925-928.
    30. Atanu Ghoshray, 2010. "The Extent Of The World Coffee Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 97-107, January.
    31. Sephton, Peter S, 1994. "Cointegration Tests on MARS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, February.
    32. Peter Sephton, 2017. "Finite Sample Critical Values of the Generalized KPSS Stationarity Test," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 161-172, June.
    33. Hagemann, Andreas, 2012. "A simple test for regression specification with non-nested alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 247-254.
    34. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 2004. "Generalizations of the KPSS‐test for stationarity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 483-502, November.
    35. Panos Fousekis & Vasilis Grigoriadis, 2017. "Joint price dynamics of quality differentiated commodities: copula evidence from coffee varieties," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358.
    36. Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    37. Peter Sephton, 2009. "Critical values for the augmented efficient Wald test for fractional unit roots," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 615-626, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    2. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    3. Kouadio, Louis & Tixier, Philippe & Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Marcussen, Torben & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rapidel, Bruno & Stone, Roger, 2021. "Performance of a process-based model for predicting robusta coffee yield at the regional scale in Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 443(C).
    4. Sephton, Peter S., 2022. "Revisiting the inflation-hedging properties of precious metals in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2018. "Gold and crude oil prices after the great moderation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 273-281.
    2. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.
    3. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2016. "Compelling Evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the United Kingdom," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 301-315, June.
    4. Sephton, Peter S., 2022. "Revisiting the inflation-hedging properties of precious metals in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Naceur Khraief & Mantu Kumar Mahalik, 2020. "Investigating the environmental Kuznets’s curve for Sweden: evidence from multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1883-1902, October.
    6. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2015. "Nonlinear attractors and asymmetries between non-life insurance premiums and financial markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 783-799, November.
    7. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    8. Mann, Janelle M., 2013. "Is there a Global Relationship Across Crude Oil Benchmarks?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2016. "Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    10. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    11. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2013. "Further evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 177-181.
    12. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2022. "Conditional tail price risk spillovers in coffee markets across quality, physical space, and time: Empirical analysis with penalized quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    14. Sokbae Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017. "Correction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 883-883, April.
    15. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    16. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    17. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    18. Gonzalo, Jesùs & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2005. "Threshold effects In multivariate error correction models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0501, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    19. Debarsy, Nicolas & Ertur, Cem, 2019. "Interaction matrix selection in spatial autoregressive models with an application to growth theory," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 49-69.
    20. Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2019. "A (negative) replication of ‘The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices, and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries’ (Energy Economics, 2000)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 78-84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    El Niño Southern Oscillation; Coffee prices; Threshold cointegration; Multivariate adaptive regression splines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:84:y:2019:i:c:s0140988319302841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.